Constrained Emergence of Air Temperature Change Signal in Northern-Central India From Background Variations
- 1Insitute of Atmospheric Sciences, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Fudan university, Shanghai, China
- 2State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China
- 3Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China
- 4Key Laboratory of Cites' Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change in Shanghai, China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai, China
The signal of temperature change has emerged from background variations in most tropical regions in boreal summer over decadal-centennial timescales but not in northern-central India (NCI). In this study, we investigated the reason for the limited temperature change in NCI. We found that internal variability, largely caused by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) on a ∼20-year timescale, has the potential to mask the temperature change signal. Besides, local response to external forcing, linked to non-greenhouse gas (GHG) forcings, strongly overrides GHG warming in NCI, which results in little trend in the temporal evolution of external variability. The internal variability related to IPO and the limited warming arising from the competition between multiple forcings result in the smallest signal-to-noise ratio and thus, the temperature change signal fails to emerge from the background variations.
How to cite: Zhang, K., Zuo, Z., Zhang, R., Xiao, D., and Qiao, L.: Constrained Emergence of Air Temperature Change Signal in Northern-Central India From Background Variations, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-3768, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-3768, 2023.
