On the Projected Changes in the Seasonality and Magnitude of Precipitation Extremes

Heavy precipitation events are strongly affected by climate change and there is a high confidence that these extremes will become more frequent and more severe in the future. Moreover, potential changes in the seasonality of these events are important in terms of planning and preparation against these events. While efforts have been focused on changes in the magnitude and seasonality of extreme precipitation events, these studies have treated these two quantities separately.

In order to overcome to this limit, a different perspective is here used by modeling the seasonality and magnitude of extreme precipitation events together through circular-linear copulae. We perform analyses at the global scale and develop bivariate models for an historical dataset. The outputs provided from several global climate models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) from 1-2.6 to 5-8.5 are then used to examine the joint projected changes in the seasonality and magnitude of extreme precipitation at the global scale.