Why is El Nino warm?
- Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University
El Nino years stand out in the global average temperature time series as record-warm years. The coupled atmosphere-ocean dynamics leading to warming in the climatologically cold equatorial Eastern Pacific are well understood, but cannot be the cause for the very strong signal in global average temperarture. The latter must be caused by an increase in subcloud Moist Static Energy (MSE) in the domain of highest subcloud MSE where atmospheric deep convection couples the surface, boundary layer and free troposphere. Transformation of the data from geographical space to sea-surface temperature (SST) percentiles eliminates the large spatial see-saws in all variables arising from the geographic reorganization of the general circulation, and brings to light the mechanism: While in the Eastern Pacific region oceanic heat uptake is reduced (corresponding to a heat flux out of the ocean), the deep convective domain sees a heat flux from the atmosphere into the ocean. We show that this heat flux into the ocean at the high end of SSTs - the opposite of the canonical perspective of a warming due to a heat flux from the ocean to the atmosphere - is mechanically forced: surface wind speeds are lower in regions of active deep convection than in ENSO neutral (and La Nina) years. The resulting reduced evaporation leads to the increase in subcloud MSE that causes the global temperature signal.
How to cite: Fueglistaler, S., Resplandy, L., and Hogikyan, A.: Why is El Nino warm?, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-4180, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-4180, 2023.