Emerging Opportunities and Challenges of Anticipatory Actions for Disaster Preparedness

Disasters and their associated physical and social risks pose challenges for local, national, and international relief agencies and disaster management organizations globally.  Novel approaches are desperately needed for vulnerable communities.  Combining season-ahead predictions, proactive management strategies, and communication efforts in disaster planning represents an emerging field in disaster management, particularly when paired with short-term early warnings and post-disaster response.  However, these long-lead action protocols are still in their infancy as only a few have been activated - triggering and financing preparedness actions.  While these protocols have generally been rigorously established, a holistic evaluation of the framework, including interactions, feedbacks, and dynamic components, is urgently warranted.  Open questions across both physical and social aspects remain, including agreeable triggers for action, clarity of roles and responsibilities, and sufficiency of funding.  The large number of disparate actors involved and the highly interdisciplinary nature lead to a complex decision-making setting.  Further, most protocols are static plans, yet disasters, impacts, infrastructure, communities, and vulnerability states are all dynamic, changing in time; how can protocols better reflect a changing world?  Surveys of disaster agencies and communities help to highlight how decision-makers perceive flood-related risk and vulnerability, and how these perceptions impact disaster preparedness and risk communication. These insights, paired with additional holistic analysis for hazard planning and management, are critical for developing proactive preparation and response strategies.  We will discuss the current state of anticipatory actions related to disaster management, followed by current barriers and potential opportunities toward reduction of disaster impacts and community vulnerability.