Humans, Water, and Climate change – Global analysis of Conflicts and Cooperation and their Potential Drivers

Despite agreement that climate change is increasingly recognized as a threat multiplier in conflict pathways, connections between water flows and conflicts remain unclear. This is affected by incomplete datasets on water-related conflict-cooperation events and poor understanding of socioeconomic and biophysical causes of such conflicts. Disentangling various drivers of water-related cooperation and conflict pathways, with more complete datasets on water-related conflict-cooperation events and a detailed understanding of socio-economic and biophysical causes of such conflicts, is necessary for resolving conflicts and building peace As part of this study we have complied a new global dataset on water-related conflict-cooperation events that extends to 2019, updating previous datasets that covered only up to 2008, yielding important new insights on cooperation-conflict trends. Correlations between events and aspects such as changes in precipitation and socioeconomic variables were then calculated for different change scenarios. Analysis of events shows that cooperation can significantly reduce future conflicts in all tested change scenarios. In addition, cooperation positively affects countries’ socioeconomic development, further reducing the risk of conflict. The new dataset revealed a worrying trend with a shift in the cooperation-conflict balance in the 2000s, with conflict events increasing and outnumbering cooperation events in 2017. Regional analysis shows that changes towards more conflict and fewer cooperation events in Africa could be related to long periods of drought, while changes in Asia are related to irrigation and dam construction. This study shows that water cooperation can be effective for peacekeeping while simultaneously creating positive socio-economic development. The trend towards less cooperation and more conflict in current years highlights the need for effective water management adapted to local and regional drivers of change (climate or anthropogenic) focusing on forming collaborations based on current and projected water availability. Utilizing our newly created and openly available water-related conflict and cooperation database can provide a good opportunity for further research into actions required to change this trend and promote future water cooperation.

Keywords: conflict; cooperation; peacekeeping; climate change; hydrology;