EGU23-5334
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-5334
EGU General Assembly 2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

The distributions of precipitations have been changing across the Mediterranean region in the last 70 years… but not always as we expect ! 

Julie André
Julie André
  • CNRS/LMD, PALAISEAU CEDEX, France (julie.andre@lmd.ipsl.fr)

Climate change is known to have consequences on both mean and extreme precipitations, with potentially threatening impacts on societies. The Mediterranean region is particularly affected, being a hotspot of temperature and precipitation changes: this region is expected to get much drier, but with more extreme rainfalls. Though the two extremes of precipitations (absence of rain -drought, dry spells etc. - and very heavy rainfalls) are crucial and well-studied, the evolution of the rest of the rain distribution has been quite overlooked in the literature. Still its study might help to get a broader and more coherent picture of the evolution over the last decades. In the Mediterranean, we commonly expect a “water cycle paradox”, i.e. decreasing mean annual precipitation (“drying”) while very heavy rainfalls intensify.

In this presentation, we look at how the whole wet-days precipitation distribution changes, in the Mediterranean region over the recent past. We use reanalysis data (ERA5) covering the whole 1950-2021 period at daily timescale. We study the trends of the rain percentiles and their statistical significance over the last 70 years.

  • We see indeed sub-regions where the “water cycle paradox” is happening, such as the Iberia peninsula as a whole or more specifically Andalusia. For those, the quantile trend curve is in a “U-shape”, with decreasing rain quantiles up to a given threshold (“inversion quantile”) and then an increasing distribution tail. This “inversion quantile” can vary a lot from one place to another.

  • However we also find that the “U-shape” trend behavior is not the norm for the Mediterranean region: the situation is more complex. In fact, two additional behaviors are observed according to the location: some regions where the whole rain distribution decreases, and others where it all increases (which is a behavior more expected in Northern Europe or over the oceans). We give a map of the “U-shape” regions and of those two supplementary behaviors, and test its robustness.

  • By modeling the rainy days distribution with a simple Weibull law (2-parameters), we manage to get an analytical criterion for the type of rainfall percentiles trend behavior. This Weibull model also enables us, for regions having the “U-shape” behavior, to derive an analytical expression for the “inversion quantile”.

How to cite: André, J.: The distributions of precipitations have been changing across the Mediterranean region in the last 70 years… but not always as we expect ! , EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-5334, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-5334, 2023.