Predictable healing rates in near-surface materials after earthquake damage in Chile

Earthquakes introduce long-lasting transient mechanical damage in the subsurface that can take years to recover to a new elastic steady-state. The associated transient perturbation of the elastic moduli can cause postseismic hazards such as enhanced landsliding.  This dynamics is linked to relaxation, a phenomenon observed in a wide class of materials after straining perturbations. In this study, we analyze the successive effect of two large earthquakes (the 2017 Mw7.7 Tocopilla and the 2014  Mw8.2 Iquique earthquakes) on ground properties through the monitoring of seismic velocity from ambient noise interferometry in the Atacama desert in Chile. The absence of rainfall in this area allows study of the mechanical state of the subsurface by limiting the potential effect of variations in groundwater content. We show that relaxation timescales are a function of the current state of the subsurface when perturbed by earthquakes, rather than ground shaking intensity. Our study highlights the predictability of earthquake damage dynamics in the Earth's near-surface and potentially other materials. We propose to reconcile this paradigm with existing physical frameworks by considering the superposition of different populations of damaged contacts.