Predicting coastline changes under human and climate drivers : GLOB-COAST MODEL

A major challenge facing climate change and sea level rise is to predict coastal evolution and in particular coastal erosion, which seems likely to increase in the next century. Coastal erosion affects many regions of the world, often highly populated. In addition to natural processes, coastal erosion is closely interrelated with anthropic activities such as sea defence building or the modification of river sediment supply (e.g. river dam sediment trapping and land use changes). Several studies have already focused on predicting coastal change using more or less complex models on local scales. However, the majority of these models don't take into account one of the main components: the input of sediment from rivers. There are also difficulties in adequately representing the shoreline evolution by a partial understanding of processes and the difficulty of obtaining detailed and long-term data. We present simplified dynamic model on a global scale fed with new satellite observations of coastal ocean hydrology and morphology. The main objective of this study is to explore, thanks to this new model, future scenarios of shoreline change with the identification of potentially vulnerable hotspots. It will help in improving sustainable coastal management strategies.