EGU General Assembly 2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Future projection of ozone-related mortality under SSP3-7.0 scenario based on CMIP6 simulations 

Dimitris Akritidis1,2, Sara Bacer1, Prodromos Zanis2, Aristeidis K. Georgoulias2, Larry W. Horowitz3, Vaishali Naik3, Fiona M. O'Connor4,5, James Keeble6,7, Philippe Le Sager8, Twan van Noije8, Putian Zhou9, and Andrea Pozzer1,10
Dimitris Akritidis et al.
  • 1Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Atmospheric Chemistry Department, Mainz, Germany
  • 2Department of Meteorology and Climatology, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece
  • 3NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States of America
  • 4Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
  • 5Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom
  • 6Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
  • 7National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS), University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
  • 8Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, The Netherlands
  • 9Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research/Physics, Faculty of Science, University of Helsinki, 00014 Helsinki, Finland
  • 10Climate and Atmosphere Research Center, The Cyprus Institute, Nicosia, 1645, Cyprus

Long-term exposure to ambient ozone is linked with respiratory-related mortality, while the emerging climate change is projected to pose double-edged challenges for ozone air quality. Here, we calculate the impact of emissions- and climate-change under SSP3-7.0 scenario on ozone-related mortality on a global scale, using historical (experiment histSST) and future simulations (experiments ssp370SST and ssp370pdSST) from three CMIP6 Earth System Models (ESMs) (GFDL-ESM4, EC-Earth3-AerChem, and UKESM1-0-LL). The ssp370SST experiment follows time-varying SSTs, while the SSP370pdSST follows a present-day climatology for SSTs. The chronic obstructive pulmonary disease mortality attributable to ozone pollution is estimated following the Global Burden Disease (GBD) 2019 approach, by using the ozone season daily maximum 8-hour mixing ratio (OSDMA8), the baseline mortality rate (from the GBD), and the SSP3-7.0 present and future gridded population. An increase in ozone-related mortality of approximately 2.5 million people per year globally is projected at the end of the century (2090) with respect to 2000 due to emissions and population changes. The climate-change footprint on ozone-related mortality exhibits large variability among the ESMs; yet, over India and China all ESMs project an increase of ozone-related mortality in the future, highlighting the importance of the ozone penalty due to global warming in regions with strong anthropogenic sources.

How to cite: Akritidis, D., Bacer, S., Zanis, P., Georgoulias, A. K., Horowitz, L. W., Naik, V., O'Connor, F. M., Keeble, J., Le Sager, P., van Noije, T., Zhou, P., and Pozzer, A.: Future projection of ozone-related mortality under SSP3-7.0 scenario based on CMIP6 simulations , EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-5642,, 2023.