Modelling the near future air-quality over Central Europe

Air quality is not only dependent on emissions, but on climate and meteorology as well. This makes the study of the evolution of air pollution varying some of its drivers crucial. In this study, the present day and near future air quality in Central Europe is studied following RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for the 2026-2035 and 2046-2055 decades, while considering present-day climate conditions. We assume that the climate changes a little while the main driver for air-quality changes in near future are the modified emissions. The emission input for the 2010-2019 decade were compiled using the Flexible Universal Processor for Modeling Emissions (www.fume-ep.org), and the two future decades are being prepared by scaling the present day emissions based on the mentioned RCPs. We are performing simulations using the Weather Research and Forecast with online chemistry version 4.0.3 (WRF-Chem) model and the Comprehensive Air-quality Model (CAMx). Several pollutants and meteorological variables will be studied and compared with observational data.