Physically based slope stability analysis: future scenarios due to changing surface temperature

Temperature significantly affects the hydraulic and mechanical properties of geomaterials on a slope. However, results from the laboratory show the change in material behaviour depends on the slip rates and the type of minerals present. Active clays are observed to be the most sensitive to temperature oscillations in mechanical deformations. In this research, the temperature change effects will be addressed in laboratory experiments on natural soils. We will deploy laboratory samples to obtain the frictional coefficient as a function of temperature (20-50 degrees). Further, reconstituted samples will be tested under different shear rates to understand the dependencies on temperature. Temperature-sensitive parameters (such as the internal friction angle) will be incorporated in a physically-based modelling framework analysing effects for a sloping unit. The factor of safety will be calculated based on spatial grids representative of the sampling location. In the second part of this research, the frictional coefficient obtained from the laboratory as a function of temperature will be synchronised with projected climate change (surface temperature, hydro-meteorological forcing) and will be simulated to a catchment scale multihazard modelling. This model will incorporate measured data and geostatistical interpolation of remotely sensed data to fulfil the dataset to run the physically based equations. The final output will be the comparison of hazard intensities (e.g., debris flow impact pressure, inundation heights, solid velocity and depth) for the projected future years.