EGU23-5900
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-5900
EGU General Assembly 2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Solar total radiation input and terrestrial temperature in the two millennia of 600-2600

Valentina Zharkova1, Irina Vasilieva2, and Elena Popova3
Valentina Zharkova et al.
  • 1University of Northumbria, Faculty of Engineering and Environment, Newcastle upon Tyne, United Kingdom (valentina.zharkova@northumbria.ac.uk)
  • 2Main Astronomical Observatory, Kyiv, Ukraine
  • 3Universidad Bernardo O’Higgins, Santiago, Chile

The  long-term millennial oscillations of the baseline  solar background magnetic field (SBMF) and the ephemeris of  the Sun-Earth distances are compared with the oscillations of solar irradiance at the terrestrial biomass (Hallstatt's cycle).    

Based  the Sun-Earth distances derived from the current JPL ephemeris based on solar inertial motion and gravitational effects on the Sun by four large planets: Jupiter, Saturn, Neptune and Uranus we  demonstrate the S-E distance is reduced by 0.005 au in the millennium M1 600-1600 and 0.011 au in millennium M2 1600-2600. We show that variations of the Sun-Earth distances  are accountable for the increase of the solar irradiance by about $20-25$ $Wm^{-2}$ since 1700 that will continue to last until 2500. he decrease of the S-E distance per century in the current millennium follows the  rate of the terrestrial temperature increase reported since MM. We evaluate that this difference of the Sun-Earth distances caused by SIM  leads to the different magnitudes of solar irradiance deposited in the Northern and Southern hemispheres  in M2 with thee Northern hemisphere to obtain more radiation compared to the Southern one. These estimations show that in the next 600 years the Sun will continue moving towards the Earth  that will result in a further increase of solar irradiance and the baseline terrestrial temperature  in 2500-2600. These variations are expected to be over-imposed by a reduction of solar activity during two grand solar minima (GSMs) with a reduce terrestrial temperatures by 1C  to occur  in 2020-2053 and 2370-2415. 

How to cite: Zharkova, V., Vasilieva, I., and Popova, E.: Solar total radiation input and terrestrial temperature in the two millennia of 600-2600, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-5900, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-5900, 2023.

Supplementary materials

Supplementary material file