Solar total radiation input and terrestrial temperature in the two millennia of 600-2600
- 1University of Northumbria, Faculty of Engineering and Environment, Newcastle upon Tyne, United Kingdom (valentina.zharkova@northumbria.ac.uk)
- 2Main Astronomical Observatory, Kyiv, Ukraine
- 3Universidad Bernardo O’Higgins, Santiago, Chile
The long-term millennial oscillations of the baseline solar background magnetic field (SBMF) and the ephemeris of the Sun-Earth distances are compared with the oscillations of solar irradiance at the terrestrial biomass (Hallstatt's cycle).
Based the Sun-Earth distances derived from the current JPL ephemeris based on solar inertial motion and gravitational effects on the Sun by four large planets: Jupiter, Saturn, Neptune and Uranus we demonstrate the S-E distance is reduced by 0.005 au in the millennium M1 600-1600 and 0.011 au in millennium M2 1600-2600. We show that variations of the Sun-Earth distances are accountable for the increase of the solar irradiance by about $20-25$ $Wm^{-2}$ since 1700 that will continue to last until 2500. he decrease of the S-E distance per century in the current millennium follows the rate of the terrestrial temperature increase reported since MM. We evaluate that this difference of the Sun-Earth distances caused by SIM leads to the different magnitudes of solar irradiance deposited in the Northern and Southern hemispheres in M2 with thee Northern hemisphere to obtain more radiation compared to the Southern one. These estimations show that in the next 600 years the Sun will continue moving towards the Earth that will result in a further increase of solar irradiance and the baseline terrestrial temperature in 2500-2600. These variations are expected to be over-imposed by a reduction of solar activity during two grand solar minima (GSMs) with a reduce terrestrial temperatures by 1C to occur in 2020-2053 and 2370-2415.
How to cite: Zharkova, V., Vasilieva, I., and Popova, E.: Solar total radiation input and terrestrial temperature in the two millennia of 600-2600, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-5900, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-5900, 2023.