Variability and the odds of Total and Pathogenic Vibrio abundance in Chesapeake Bay

Vibrio spp. is typically found in salty waters and is indigenous to coastal environments.  V. vulnificus and V. parahaemolyticus frequently causes food-borne and non-food-borne infections in the United States. Vibrio spp. is sensitive to changes in environmental conditions and various studies have explored their relationship with the environment and have identified water temperature as the strongest environmental predictor with salinity also affecting the abundance in some cases. It is unclear how additional environmental factors will affect intra-seasonal variance as well as the seasonal cycle. This study investigated the intra-seasonal variations in total and pathogenic V. parahaemolyticus and V. vulnificus organisms in oysters and surrounding waters from 2009 to 2012 at a few locations in the Chesapeake Bay. V. Vulnificus is always pathogenic, but it has been observed that there was greater sample-to-sample variability in pathogenic V. parahaemolyticus than in total V. parahaemolyticus. To determine the increase in the likelihood of vibrio presence when the value of a certain environmental parameter has changed, the odds ratio is examined for various values of environmental factors. The odds ratio that we employed measures the likelihood that the desired outcome would occur in samples with the vibrio in comparison to the likelihood that the desired outcome will occur in samples without the vibrio. This technique will give us the threshold value of the environmental variable above which the likelihood of vibrio spp. presence has increased drastically. With changing climate and environmental conditions, vibrio is posing increasing risks to human health. The findings of this study will demonstrate the effectiveness of the odds ratio technique in estimating the likelihood that vibrio abundance would increase when environmental conditions change, which can then be incorporated into prediction models to reduce the danger to the public's health.