The EDORA project: Towards a multi-sectoral drought risk assessment in Europe

Drought affects almost every aspect of the environment and society. However, specific sectoral drought impact and risk assessments are often excluded from loss estimates because they are difficult to quantify and/or model. Effectively assessing and managing drought risk requires a multi-scale and multi-sectoral approach to understand the different dimensions of drought. 

The European Drought Observatory for Resilience and Adaptation (EDORA) project addresses the study of drought risk in a multi-system perspective in the European Union. The sectors and systems included in the assessment are agriculture, energy production, water supply, water transport and ecosystems. 

A proper collection and classification of past drought impact data is essential for risk assessment. To this end, we are developing a database of recorded impacts for each system, which can be fed by semi-automated media monitoring, official reports and manual data entries from potential observers. The collection and systematisation of sector specific impacts of drought aims at filling an important gap at the European scale.

Drought risk is assessed in two complementary ways. Risk drivers, root causes of risk and cascading effects are identified and mapped through system-specific impact chains informed by a systematic literature review and expert consultation (including validation workshops). An integrated, cross-system model unveils the interconnections and complexity of drought risk. Also, a modelling tool to quantitatively assess drought risk  was developed for different systems and different regions using machine learning techniques. This data-driven technique uncovers the vulnerability-specific interactions between hazard and impact under present and projected climate conditions. The outcomes of the risk assessments are collected into an atlas showing European multisectoral drought risk at subnational level.