Seismic hazard assessment of the Lebanese Restraining Bend: A neo-deterministic approach

The Lebanese Restraining Bend is an active bend along the Dead Sea Transform Fault in the eastern Mediterranean region where several destructive earthquakes happened throughout history. In this paper, we assess the gross features of seismic hazard of the Lebanese Restraining Bend by applying a neo-deterministic method that involves the generation of synthetic seismograms distributed on a regular grid over the study area. We use the regional seismicity, seismic source zones, focal mechanism solutions, and velocity structural models. We present maps of ground displacement, velocity, and acceleration. This is the first study that generates neo-deterministic seismic hazard maps for the Lebanese Restraining Bend using representative ground motion modelling. Our results show that displacement values of 15-30 cm and velocity values of 30-60 cm/s can be expected along most of Lebanon. In addition, 0.15-0.30 g acceleration values can dominate most of the Lebanese territory and surrounding areas. It is evident from these results that the study area in general and Lebanon in particular constitute a high seismic hazard area, which necessitates further attention from the authorities regarding the precaution measures needed to mitigate the effects of potential catastrophic seismic events; in addition, more detailed investigations are needed at local scale for specific sites of interest.