Analysis of Projected Changes in Seasonal Precipitation Amounts for Central Asia Using the CMIP6 Multi-Model Ensemble Approach
- 1Center for Climate Change and Policy Studies, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul, Türkiye (tufan.turp@boun.edu.tr)
- 2Department of Computational Science and Engineering, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul, Türkiye (nazan.an@boun.edu.tr)
- 3Meteorological Institute, Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich, Munich, Germany (zekican.demiralay@boun.edu.tr)
- 4Department of Civil Engineering, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul, Türkiye (avci@boun.edu.tr)
- 5Energy Policy Research Center, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul, Türkiye
- 6Department of Physics, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul, Türkiye (levent.kurnaz@boun.edu.tr)
Particularly due to its arid and semi-arid nature, the environmental, ecological and socio-economic systems of Central Asia are under serious threat of climate change. Depending on the climate change in Central Asia, water resources spread over limited physiographic regions in the domain, grasslands and related livestock are the elements that will be adversely affected by the negative changes. The vital resource in the arid and semi-arid Central Asia region, which is a kind of large continental rain shadow basin surrounded by mountains, is therefore water. For this reason, in this study, the changes in the total precipitation for Central Asia, which is the core region of the Asia continent and one of the 14 main domains of the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX), were examined within the scope of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. In the study, a multi-model ensemble mean approach was applied in order to investigate the projected changes in seasonal precipitation amounts for three different future quarters (i.e., 2025-2049, 2050-2074, and 2075-2099) with respect to the reference period of 1975-1999 under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (i.e., SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5).
Acknowledgement: This research has been supported by Boğaziçi University Research Fund Grant Number 19367.
How to cite: Turp, M. T., An, N., Demiralay, Z., Avcı, B. C., and Kurnaz, M. L.: Analysis of Projected Changes in Seasonal Precipitation Amounts for Central Asia Using the CMIP6 Multi-Model Ensemble Approach, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-6571, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-6571, 2023.
