Effects of future Arctic sea-ice loss and ocean warming on winter temperature extremes in the Northern Hemisphere

Rapid Arctic warming and sea-ice loss have been observed in recent decades, and these trends are likely to continue in the future. Research has shown that Arctic changes affect weather and climate across the Northern Hemisphere. These changes, especially those in the extreme ends, can adversely impact communities and ecosystems. Recent development of the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) means that large ensembles of standardised climate experiments are now available for examining the effects of future Arctic changes on extreme weather in a coordinated way. Based on present-day and future (2°C global mean warming above pre-industrial levels) PAMIP model simulations, I will show the projected responses of winter hot and cold extremes (at the 20-year return period) to future Arctic sea-ice loss and ocean warming separately. I will focus on land areas in the Northern Hemispheric mid- and high latitudes where responses are expected to be largest. I will discuss the importance of considering the effect of sea-ice concentration loss together with that from ocean warming, which is not routinely done in the literature.