Conceptualizing the long-term interactions between climate services and adaptation to hydrometeorological extremes

Climate services are expected to deliver better climate adaptation by providing decision-makers with timely, salient, credible, legitimate, and accessible climate information. Nonetheless, climate services’ impact on long-term adaptation remains poorly understood due to their ambiguous protocols, quality standards, and inadequate monitoring and evaluation processes.

The aim of this study is to present the underpinnings of a framework representing the causal mechanisms and feedback interactions between adaptation to hydrometeorological extremes, i.e. floods and droughts, and climate services among the partner living labs of the I-CISK project (https://icisk.eu). To this end, a qualitative investigation based on interviews and surveys of the living labs’ stakeholders is performed. Following, the findings from the qualitative analysis are iteratively discussed with the stakeholders and presented as a causal loop diagram, highlighting feedback loops in the coupled human-climate system. Finally, the emerging dynamics are described using system archetypes.

This research offers a systemic tool for evaluating the long-term dynamics of adaptation to hydrometeorological extremes while building the bases for further research in the living labs. Moreover, it shows the efficacy of system dynamics tools for informing adaptive policy-making.