An early warning decision support system for disease outbreaks in the livestock sector

New climate regimes, variability and extreme events affect the livestock sector in many aspects, ranging from animal welfare, production, reproduction, diseases and their spread, feed quality and availability. Heat stress, especially when combined with excess or low humidity, exacerbates the perceived temperature or the drought conditions, respectively, increasing hazards for animals. Also, cold extremes, extraordinary windy conditions and altered radiation regimes are detrimental to both animals and fodder.

In this context, the EU-funded SEBASTIEN project aims to provide stakeholders with a Decision Support System (DSS) for more efficient and sustainable management, and consequent valuation, of the livestock sector in Italy. SEBASTIEN DSS will integrate GIS, environmental and biological variables to generate updated risk maps for livestock diseases and zoonoses and their spread, alerting about the expected occurrence of stressing conditions for animals due to abiotic and biotic factors.

The presence of parasites, vectors, and outbreaks will be combined with environmental data, gathered by spatially distributed meteorological and satellite monitoring, to detect conditions that can potentially favor or trigger the spread of related diseases. Sensor-based monitoring data will be integrated with the above information to determine ranges in animal parameters potentially associated with a higher risk of critical pathogen load or density of vectors potential carriers of diseases. Medium to long-term climate forecasts will support predicting possible shifts of favorable conditions that will open up new areas for parasites and pathogens. The vast amounts of data will be integrated and summarized into user-tailored information through a range of techniques, from empirical/statistical indicators to Machine Learning algorithms.