Statistical validation of the Magnetospheric–Ionospheric–Lithospheric Coupling model on occasion of the Marche Earthquake (Mw 4.2) main shock occurred on November 20th 2022

In the last few decades, the efforts of the scientific community to search earthquake signatures in the Earth atmosphere, ionosphere and magnetosphere have grown rapidly. The increasing amount of good quality data from ground stations and satellites allowed the detection of specific signatures with high statistical significance such as ionospheric plasma density perturbations and/or atmospheric temperature and pressure changes. In addition, the recent development of a magnetospheric–ionospheric–lithospheric coupling (M.I.L.C.) analytical model has provided promising results in the identification of causal links between the observed anomalies and their possible seismic origin. With the aim of statistical validating such a model, we have performed a multi-instrument analysis of a mid-latitude seismic event, including also the investigation of atmospheric activity, in order to validate the identification of confounders and possibly explain any observed anomalous signal. Specifically, we have investigated the earthquake (Mw 4.2) occurred in Italy (Marche) on November 20th 2022 by using high-quality data from both ground-based detectors and satellites, preserving their statistical significance, that we have compared with the predictions of the M.I.L.C. model.