Studying renewable energy generation variability under future climate scenarios in Chile

Chile has proven to be a country with great potential for renewable energies, favoring in the last decades the development of renewable energy projects, increasing its solar and wind capacities from 202 MW (1.1%) in 2012 to 6522 MW (21%) in 2021, and increasing further by 2022 to a total of 10476 MW (32%). According to the Chilean Energy Ministry, this trend will continue to increase to cover 70% of energy generation by 2030 with renewable energy sources and to meet the carbon neutrality scenario by 2050. However, since the electricity generation from renewable energy sources is affected by future extreme weather events caused by climate change, this possible uncertainty and variability should be considered when new energy projects are designed and developed. The present work aims to study the variability of renewable energy generation under future climate scenarios in Chile.

To capture the future variability of the weather conditions, we use the global climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP), which assess future climate change projections considering climate variability and uncertainties scenarios. We adapt these datasets for Chile, interpolate the wind speed based on model-level raw data proposed by Hahmann et al., and calculate capacity factors per renewable technology.

Through this study, we expect to explore the changes in renewable energy generation in Chile, estimating the impact of climate changes in this area. This work will help decision-makers decide on the future energy transition of Chile in the face of extreme changes in the climate condition of the country.