Enhancing Ireland’s Dispersion Modelling Capabilities for Human, Animal & Plant Health

This poster will present details of a novel research project which aims to assist the Irish government to mitigate the impact of various incidents on Ireland such as infectious diseases for animals, contamination of animal feedstuffs, nuclear accidents/incidents/events abroad, radioactive contamination, environmental pollution, fire, and volcanic eruptions impacting Ireland.

Atmospheric dispersion modelling is the mathematical simulation of how air pollutants disperse in the atmosphere. It is performed using computer simulations which use algorithms to solve mathematical equations that govern the dispersion of airborne particles. Dispersion models estimate the downwind ambient concentration of air pollutants emitted from 1) man-made sources (e.g. industrial plants, vehicular traffic, accidental chemical/nuclear releases), and 2) natural sources (e.g. small insects, pollen, dust or volcanic ash). Dispersion models can also be used to predict future concentrations of particles under specific scenarios (e.g. pollen forecasting based on weather data, the spread of Bluetongue virus, and the spread of Foot & Mouth disease).

Currently, Ireland’s national meteorological service (Met Éireann) provides numerical weather prediction data to Ireland’s Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), to simulate the dispersion of nuclear material into the atmosphere. Met Éireann supports the EPA’s modelling capability by producing a daily automated simulated nuclear release. Met Éireann performs operational Bluetongue Virus forecasting, which is sent to relevant agricultural stakeholders, and supports University College Dublin (UCD) in their modelling of Foot and Mouth disease.

As climate change continues, a range of pests previously unknown in Ireland are likely to find favourable conditions here, which could potentially harm native species of plants and animals. Investigation of potential sources of these pests, and assessment of their ability to travel over large distances on prevailing winds, could help prevent losses of livestock, crops and biodiversity.

To improve Ireland’s national dispersion modelling capabilities, Met Éireann propose to commence a 4-year research project in 2023 using dispersion models and high-resolution meteorological data to build forecast capacity for a range of airborne particles that can affect human, animal and plant health. Such airborne particles include bioaerosols (vector-borne diseases, pollen and fungal spores), forest fire smoke, volcanic ash plumes and Saharan dust. High-resolution meteorological data and ensemble prediction systems will be employed to identify the locations in Ireland that are likely to be affected by various aerosols under different weather conditions. Met Éireann seeks to be an authoritative source for dispersion forecasts in Ireland, which could be of significant benefit to the agriculture industry and the significant number of Irish people who suffer from asthma, hay-fever and other respiratory illnesses.