The response of the regional longwave radiation balance and climate system in Europe to an idealized afforestation experiment

Afforestation is an important mitigation strategy to climate change due to its carbon sequestration potential. Besides this positive biogeochemical effect on global CO₂ concentrations, afforestation also affects the regional climate by changing the biogeophysical land surface characteristics. In this study, we investigate the effects of an idealized global CO₂ reduction to pre-industrial conditions by a Europe-wide afforestation experiment on the regional longwave radiation balance, starting in the year 1986 from a continent entirely covered with grassland. Results show that the impact of biogeophysical processes on the surface temperatures is much stronger than of biogechemical processes. Furthermore, biogeophysically induced changes of the surface temperatures, atmospheric temperatures and moisture concentrations are as important for the regional greenhouse effect as the global CO₂ reduction. While the greenhouse effect is strengthened in winter, it is weakened in summer. On annual total, a Europe-wide afforestation has a regional warming effect, despite reduced CO₂ concentrations. Thus, even for an idealized reduction of the global CO₂ concentrations to pre-industrial levels, the European climate response to afforestation would still be dominated by its biogeophysical effects.