Modeling of groundwater level changes in the fast-growing Indian Secondary Cities

Due to rapid industrial and population growth, groundwater levels frequently shift, with depletion being the most prominent effect. Numerical models have the potential to save time and money by supplying pertinent information in areas where data is lacking. We investigate the fluctuations in groundwater levels in the secondary cities of India using the well-known MODFLOW-2005 model. The study covers all the wards of three Indian secondary cities (Bhopal, Bhuj and Kozhikode), and we run a simulation for the year 2012–2020. We use groundwater table data from 2012 to 2020, topographic maps and geological maps of the selected cities. Along with these, we use hydraulic conductivity and specific yield values of the aquifer of the study area. We calibrate the model for both steady-state and transient scenarios to match the field conditions up to acceptable standards. Moreover, we validate the model for any one year to justify the acceptability of all the calibrated values. In addition, we perform sensitivity analysis to illustrate which model parameter has the greatest influence on the model output. Finally, we run the model for 2025 to predict the groundwater level changes in the immediate future. From this, we can identify the regions facing serious groundwater-lowering problems. Therefore, more comprehensive policies, as well as laws on groundwater extraction, should be created in order to safeguard this natural resource. In this context, the present study will provide an overview of this urgent issue in Indian cities.