Forecasting the risk of vector-borne diseases at different time scales: an overview of the CLIMate SEnsitive DISease (CLIMSEDIS) Forecasting Tool project for the Horn of Africa

Vector-borne diseases are transmitted by a range of arthropod insects that are climate sensitive. Arthropods are ectothermic; hence air temperature has a significant impact on their biting and development rates. In addition, higher temperatures shorten the extrinsic incubation period of pathogens, namely the time required for an insect vector to become infectious once it has been infected. Rainfall also creates suitable conditions for breeding sites. The latest IPCC-AR6 report unequivocally concluded that recent climate change already had an impact on the distribution of important human and animal diseases and their vectors. For example, dengue is now transmitted in temperate regions of Europe, and malaria vectors are now found at higher altitudes and latitudes in the Tropics. Different streams of climate forecasts, ranging from short range numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to seasonal forecasting systems, to future climate change ensembles can be used to forecast the risk posed by key vector-borne diseases at different time scales.  

This work will first introduce vector-borne disease forecasting system prototypes developed for different time scales and applications. Three examples will be presented; first a NWP driven model to forecast the risk of the animal disease Bluetongue in the UK, second the skill of the Liverpool malaria model simulations driven by seasonal forecasts in Botswana, and third the impact of RCP-SSP climate change scenarios on the risk posed by dengue and malaria at global scale. In addition, the use of mathematical disease models in anticipating disease risk will be presented, highlighting the limited uptake by policy makers. To bridge the academic/policy making gap, novel participatory approaches which include all actors need to be developed.

The CLIMate SEnsitive DISease Forecasting Tool (CLIMSEDIS) project aims to bridge that gap. The overall aim of CLIMSEDIS is to develop and build capacity in the use of an innovative user-friendly digital tool. CLIMSEDIS will allow end-user stakeholders to utilise forecasts and delineate sub-national risk of multiple climate sensitive diseases to inform timely and targeted intervention strategies in eight countries across the Horn of Africa. Disease prioritization exercise, scoping reviews and interactive workshops with stakeholders will be carried out. The final deliverable will consist in a web-based portal and a phone application that will be used, maintained, and developed further by key African regional partners. A presentation of the CLIMSEDIS project phases and its overall strategy will be presented.