Short term forecast of CME flux rope signatures using 3DCORE

The 3D coronal rope ejection (3DCORE) model has proven to work quite well for fitting in situ magnetic fields of CME flux ropes. The model assumes an empirically motivated torus-like flux rope structure that expands self-similarly within the heliosphere, is influenced by a simplified interaction with the solar wind environment, and carries along an embedded analytical magnetic field. For the fitting part an approximate Bayesian computation sequential Monte Carlo algorithm is utilized, which allows us to generate estimates on the uncertainty of model parameters using only a single in situ observation.
In the present study, we test the ability of 3DCORE to perform short term forecasts of an ICME’s magnetic field. Therefore, we use only the first couple of hours of an in situ observation to which 3DCORE fits a magnetic field and predicts the rest of the flux rope structure.