EGU23-7772, updated on 25 Feb 2023
EGU General Assembly 2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Societal Flood Risk in Italy

Mina Yazdani1, Paola Salvati1, Mauro Rossi1, Cinzia Bianchi1, and Fausto Guzzetti2
Mina Yazdani et al.
  • 1CNR IRPI - Italian National Research Council, Research Institute for the Geo-Hydrological Protection, via della Madonna Alta 126, 06128 Perugia, Italy
  • 2Civil Protection Department, Office of the Prime Minister, Rome, Italy

Flood events are among the most damaging natural disasters, with billions of people being directly exposed to the risk of intense flooding worldwide. The economic and societal consequences of these events are expected to increase in the coming years. Flood societal risk can be determined by analyzing the relationship between the frequency of fatal flood events and the magnitude of the resulting consequences to the population (evaluated by the number of fatalities due to the event). Here, we test an approach previously proposed for landslides to estimate the flood societal risk in Italy, using historical sparse data on flood fatalities, available through national catalogues. Such an approach is based on the use of the Zipf distribution, which has previously been widely adopted for the modeling of societal risk for different natural hazards. The model allowed the evaluation of the spatial and temporal distribution of societal flood risk over the Italian territory over a regularly spaced grid. Different risk scenarios are presented and discussed.  

How to cite: Yazdani, M., Salvati, P., Rossi, M., Bianchi, C., and Guzzetti, F.: Societal Flood Risk in Italy, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-7772,, 2023.