Observations-based machine learning model constrains uncertainty in future regional warming projections.

Knowledge about future global and regional warming is essential for effective adaptation planning and our current temperature projections are based on the output of global climate models (GCMs). Although GCMs agree on the direction of change, there are still significant discrepancies in the magnitude of the projected response¹. 

Here we develop a novel method^2,3 for constraining uncertainty in future regional temperature projections based on the predictions of an observationally trained machine learning algorithm, Ridge-ERA5. Ridge-ERA5 - a Ridge regression model⁴- learns coefficients to represent observed relationships between daily temperature anomalies and a selection of thermodynamic and dynamical variables in the ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA) 5 dataset⁵. Climate-invariance of the Ridge relationships is demonstrated in a perfect model framework: we train a set of 23 Ridge-CMIP models on historical data of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 6⁶ and evaluate their predictions using future scenario data from the most extreme future emissions pathway, SSP 5-8.5.  

Combining the historically constrained Ridge-ERA5 coefficients with normalised inputs from CMIP6 future climate change simulations forms the basis of a new methodology to derive observational constraints on regional climate change. For daily, regional (2°x2°), summer temperatures across the Northern Hemisphere, the Ridge-ERA5 observations-based constraint implies, for example, that a group of higher sensitivity CMIP6 models is inconsistent with observational evidence (including in Eastern, West & Central, and Northern Europe) potentially suggesting that the sensitivity of these models is indeed too high^7,8. A key advantage of our new method is the ability to constrain regional projections at very high – daily – temporal resolution which includes extreme events such as heatwaves. 

 

1) Brient, F. (2019) Reducing Uncertainties in Climate Projections with Emergent Constraints: Concepts, Examples and Prospects. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2020 37:1, 37(1), pp. 1–15. 

2) Ceppi, P. and Nowack, P. (2021) Observational evidence that cloud feedback amplifies global warming. PNAS, 118(30). 

3) Nowack, P. et al. An observational constraint on the uncertainty in stratospheric water vapour projections. (in review) 

4) Hoerl, A. E. and Kennard, R. W. (1970) Ridge Regression: Applications to Nonorthogonal Problems. Technometrics, 12(1), pp. 69–82.  

5) Hersbach, H. et al. (2020) The ERA5 global reanalysis. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 146(730), pp. 1999–2049.  

6) Eyring, V. et al. (2016) Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization. Geoscientific Model Development, 9(5), pp. 1937–1958.  

7) Zelinka, M. D. et al. (2020) Causes of Higher Climate Sensitivity in CMIP6 Models. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(1). 

8) Zhu, J., Poulsen, C. J. and Otto-Bliesner, B. L. (2020) High climate sensitivity in CMIP6 model not supported by paleoclimate. Nature Climate Change 2020 10:5, 10(5), pp. 378–379.