Machine learning ensemble models for solar wind speed prediction

Machine learning models trained to reproduce space mission observations are precious resources to fill gaps of missing data in measurement time series or to perform data forecasting within a reasonable uncertainty degree. The latter option is of particular importance for future space missions that will not host instrumentation dedicated to interplanetary medium parameter monitoring. The future LISA mission for low-frequency gravitational wave detection, for instance, will benefit of particle detectors to measure the galactic cosmic-ray integral flux variations and magnetometers that will allow to monitor the passage of large scale magnetic structures through the three LISA spacecraft as part of a diagnostics subsystem. Unfortunately, no instruments dedicated to solar wind speed measurements will be present on board the spacecraft constellation. Moreover, LISA, scheduled to launch in 2035, will trail Earth on the ecliptic at 50 million km distance, far from the orbits of other space missions dedicated to the interplanetary medium monitoring.

Based on precious lessons learned with LISA Pathfinder, the ESA LISA precursor mission, about the correlation between galactic cosmic-ray flux short-term variations and solar wind speed increases, we built a machine learning ensemble model able to reconstruct the solar wind trend only on the basis of contemporaneous and preceding observations of galactic cosmic-ray flux variations. Details about the model creation and performance will be presented, together with a description of the underlying data set, weak predictors and training phase. Advantages and limitations will be discussed, showing that the model performance may be enhanced by providing interplanetary magnetic field intensity observations as additional input data, with the goal of providing the LISA mission with an effective solar wind speed predictive tool.