Multi-annual prediction of drought and heat stress to support decision making in the wheat sector

Unfavourable and extreme climate events such as drought and heat stress heavily impact the agriculture sector and food security globally, and the impact of these climate hazards is expected to increase over the upcoming years due to anthropogenic climate change. Decadal climate predictions have been made available to stakeholders in the agriculture sector as a potential source of near-term climate information that provides forecasts for the following 10 years, thus providing an important source of information for increasing preparedness and for adaptation. In this study, the ability of such forecasts to predict climate extremes on a multi-annual timescale is explored. In particular, the skill and reliability of decadal probability forecasts to estimate user-relevant agro-climatic indices, such as the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), for the months preceding the wheat harvest on a global spatial scale, will be presented. Following this, the added value of such climate information with respect to using past observed climatology or standard (uninitialized) climate projections will be shown. The applicability of decadal forecasts to enhance the adaptation and mitigation activities in the agricultural sector will be illustrated.