Pursuing a Multi-Model Ensemble Approach to Soil Carbon in Agricultural Systems

A multi-discliplinary, multi-sectoral team, co-led by the author, is launching a new US-based workgroup with representation from across the rapidly expanding climate smart agricultural community to collaborate on the development and use of an appropriate multi-model ensemble (MME) approach to modeling soil carbon. Although it is not a target of the workgroup at this time, the same modeling approach could eventually be expanded to include methane and nitrous oxide. The workgroup will include the research community, participants in the emerging agricultural carbon marketplace, policy-makers, foundations, and other relevant stakeholders. Such an ensemble approach has ample precedent in modeling other complex processes, such as global climate modeling, weather forecasting, projecting hurricane trajectories, and (perhaps of greatest relevance) predicting crop yields. As demonstrated by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison & Improvement Project (AgMIP),  the median of an MME always gives better predictions than any single model. 

The workgroup will have two deliverables: (1) a peer-reviewed article in a first-tier journal showing the benefits of the MME approach; and (2) an API (free to anyone) that allows any interested party to deploy the MME approach (which helps address fundamental equity issues in the emerging climate smart ag marketplace).

As the effort is undertaken, it will adhere to the following guiding principles:
•    The MME approach will be based on individual models that are each publicly available, documented transparently, and based in peer-reviewed literature whenever possible.
•    The workgroup will invite participation from all private- and public-sector modeling teams. 
•    Funding for the effort is being provided via a public-private partnership. The API will be made available to the public free of charge to any interested party.

This presentation will describe the current status of the new workgroup and issue an open invitation to interested EGU23 conference participants who wish to become engaged in workgroup activities.