Consecutive hazards and adaptive capacity of individuals – a gender-sensitive study in the Indian Sundarban delta

The Indian Sundarban has witnessed consecutive major cyclones (Cyclone Bulbul, Super Cyclone Amphan and Cyclone Yaas) in the 18 months between November 2019 and May 2021. Following Cyclone Yaas, the region also faced an extreme rainfall event. These extreme events have been compounded by the Covid-19 pandemic. This consecutive (and compound) hazard occurrence caused differential impacts based on varying levels of exposures and adaptive capacity of individuals. Examining the adaptive capacity of individuals within the context of consecutive hazards presents an opportunity to understand the ways in which adaptive capacity is drawn upon in disaster preparedness, response, and recovery actions, and how consecutive hazards with reduced return time affect the capacity of adaptive capacity to regenerate, with implications for risk levels. Since climate change is predicted to increase the intensity and frequency of cyclones, understanding where, when and with whom adaptive capacity needs to be supported is essential to reduce disaster risk in the Indian Sundarban delta. In-depth interviews were conducted with six men and six women of different socio-economic backgrounds from two community development blocks with different levels of exposure to cyclones (Sagar and Gosaba). Using the Local Adaptive Capacity Framework, this study reveals that adaptive capacities differ by gender and socio-economic background.  These different adaptive capacities were manifest in differential natures of preparedness, response, and recovery as undertaken by the respondents – and thus different levels of impact from cyclone and indirect Covid exposure. The increasing frequency and intensity of cyclones reduced the amount of time for adaptive capacity to replenish itself, hence there is an aggregated erosion of adaptive capacity, meaning that people are less able to absorb the impacts of cyclones that occur in quick succession relative to those that occur with a greater lag time. This study also includes co-produced adaptation measures which the respondents and the authors felt were needed for effective disaster risk reduction. These include structural interventions like raised concrete housing and resilient embankments, ecosystem-based adaptations like mangrove plantation and restoration especially in mudflats of fringe areas, livelihood-based adaptations like cultivation of saline-resistant crops, community based interventions like operation of community kitchens in the aftermath of disasters, importance of evacuation for all residents, and judicious relief distribution, and institutional adaptation including fair compensation. These findings add empirical weight to the concept of adaptation pathways, and highlight how the adaptation options available at any point in time are at least in part contingent on past circumstances. They also highlight the intersectional nature of adaptive capacity, which is important to inform policy and practice that equitably supports capacity to adapt.