Exploring and investigating the performance of the global and regional climate models in precipitation over The Nile River basin

Natural disasters like droughts and flood events have frequently been occurring due to climate change in the global pattern of precipitation in recent decades. Estimating the future spatiotemporal precipitation variability is necessary to mitigate climate change's impact, particularly extreme precipitation events. However, global and regional climate models typically vary on the projected change in precipitation characteristics over particular regions. Therefore, this study comprehensively evaluates historical and future climate models in terms of spatial distribution, annual cycles, and frequency distributions of precipitation over the Blue Nile basin (BNB) based on different statistical indices. Also, the autocorrelated time series data were subjected to the Mann-Kendall (MK) and Sen's slope estimator tests to identify trends. Many regional and global climate models, such as HadCM3, ECHAM5, MPI-ESM-LR, and EC-EARTH, are employed not only better to understand the discrepancy and the uncertainties of climate models but also to estimate the impact of climate change in the extreme precipitation events over the Blue Nile basin (BNB). Overall, our finding would serve as a benchmark for flood risk mitigation research and water resources management applications over the Blue River basin.