EGU23-9011, updated on 17 Oct 2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-9011
EGU General Assembly 2023
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Do the TCRE and ZEC metrics work under net negative CO2 emissions?

Charles Koven1, Benjamin Sanderson2, and Abigail Swann3
Charles Koven et al.
  • 1Lawrence Berkeley Lab, Earth Sciences Division, Berkeley, United States of America (cdkoven@lbl.gov)
  • 2Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO), Oslo, Norway
  • 3Department of Atmospheric Science and Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America

Two key metrics of the coupled carbon-climate system are used to inform the remaining carbon budget for climate stabilization: the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE) and the zero emissions commitment (ZEC), which govern the global temperature response to positive and zero emissions, respectively. We ask whether and how these two metrics describe global temperatures under net negative CO2 emissions, using an idealized scenario defined by a gradual and symmetric reversal from positive to negative emissions. Using a full Earth system model and an ensemble of simple climate model simulations, we show that the two metrics do capture the global temperature dynamics even under large amounts of negative emissions, with ZEC predicting the deviation from symmetric TCRE proportionality under negative emissions. Further, we show that because ZEC begins to influence global temperatures even before reaching net zero, it can be better thought of as a measure of the deviation from the path-independence of the TCRE relationship than as a measure of the committed warming after reaching net zero.

How to cite: Koven, C., Sanderson, B., and Swann, A.: Do the TCRE and ZEC metrics work under net negative CO2 emissions?, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-9011, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-9011, 2023.