Moisture sources projections under climate change for Atmospheric Rivers landfalling the Iberian Peninsula

A combination of Flexpart-WRF simulations forced with ERA5 and the CESM2 model incorporated in the CMIP6 project to infer a series of changes over the present century in the behavior of the landfalling ARs arriving at the Iberian Peninsula was used. Potential changes in the strength and position of their main moisture sources are also studied first in the literature. In general terms, a gradual strengthening in the intensity of these events is expected, observable from an increase in the amount of moisture transported, while no significant changes in the net number of events are observed. A northward shift in the position of the centroids has also been detected. In relation to the moisture sources, an increase in the contribution of these sources to the moisture content is expected, compatible with Clausius-Clapeyron amplification.