Future irreversible loss of Thwaites Glacier relative to global warming

The speed of West Antarctic melting is a very important factor in determining the degree of future global sea level rise. Loss of the Thwaites glacier due to global warming will have various regime changes in line with changes in the Earth system. The basal melting as a result of ocean warming can cause loss at an inhomogeneous rate across the underlying topography and overlying ice volume, while the change in precipitation from snow to rain as atmospheric warming can accelerate surface melting and trigger the irreversible loss.  

In this study, the ISSM model was driven with the ocean and atmospheric forcings obtained from the CMIP6 earth system model results, and future prediction experiments were performed until 2300. As a result, the accelerated period of melting of the Thwaites glacier related with forcings and the period of irreversible loss according to the structural characteristics and degree of warming are investigated. The mechanisms and timing that cause rapid ice loss are analyzed and the tipping point at which irreversible losses are triggered has been proposed as a function of warming.