NH1.1
Orals: Wed, 26 Apr | Room 1.15/16
Extreme climate events such as heat waves cause enormous stress on human health and ecosystems and economic losses in agriculture, energy, or water management activities. In particular, the combined effect of above-normal nighttime temperatures and high humidity poses a high risk to human health. This is related to the thermal discomfort which prevents the human body’s recovery from daytime high-heat exposure. Seasonal forecasts of the nighttime heat waves might be used as a tool to anticipate these risks and to better manage their social and economic impacts. However, the ability of the seasonal forecast systems to predict these extreme events has not been explored so far. This work provides insight into the potential of four seasonal forecasting systems (CMCC Seasonal Prediction System 3.5, DWD System 2.1, ECMWF SEAS5, and Météo-France System 7) to provide skillful and reliable predictions of the nighttime heat waves in Europe during the boreal summer season. Different potential proxies for the assessment of nighttime heat waves have been considered: nighttime apparent temperature computed from temperature and humidity at night, the temperature at night, or daily minimum temperature. There are different indices that can be used to investigate extreme temperatures, but the one chosen in this study is very suitable for seasonal forecast analysis because it is invariant to the mean biases and provides an integrated view of the nighttime heat waves for the entire season with information on their duration, frequency, and intensity. The forecast quality assessment has revealed that state-of-the-art seasonal forecast systems are able to provide useful information on the nighttime heat waves in Southern Europe, which is a particularly vulnerable region where timely climate information can benefit the decision-making processes.
How to cite: Torralba, V., Materia, S., Cavicchia, L., Álvarez-Castro, M. C., Scoccimarro, E., and Gualdi, S.: Seasonal forecasts of the nighttime heat waves in Europe, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-8146, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-8146, 2023.
Extreme heat under the warming environment has direct societal implications for developing and highly urbanized populations. Previous studies have shown that extreme wet-bulb temperature, a multivariate measure of temperature-humidity, has led to anomalously high convective inhibition and increased precipitation intensity over the tropics. However, little is known about the linkage of humid heat stress characteristics, such as duration and peak heat stress, versus the sub-daily precipitation extremes over urban and periurban locations in the tropics. Leveraging ground-based meteorological records of around five decades from the 27 hydrometric observatories of the India Meteorological Department, I investigate the compound occurrence of humid heat stress versus sub-daily precipitation extremes across the Indian subcontinent (4 - 40° latitude and 65 - 100° longitude). Here heatwaves are identified when three or more consecutive days of extreme wet-bulb temperature, Tw, is above the 90th percentile daily variable threshold for each day of the year. I show the impact of heat stress and its duration on sub-daily precipitation extremes using a novel conditional probabilistic approach. The risk of sub-daily precipitation extremes at each urbanized location is modelled considering the nonstationarity of underlying drivers. The relative timings between each driver and duration overlap between heatwaves and above-average precipitation extremes (wet spells) are also shown. The results show that the extremal upper dependence between peak Tw and sub-daily precipitation extremes are significantly positive and lies in the range of 0.12 to ≥0.20 across the central northeast region that housed part of the Indo-Gangetic Plains. More than 40% of sites report the most coinciding occurrence of humid-heat stress versus sub-daily precipitation extreme, where each of these drivers readily overlapped each other with a lag time of fewer than two days. Further, I show that considering the magnitude of heat stress as a 10-year return period, even a moderate increase in duration will increase the probability of sub-daily precipitation extremes by a range of 1.7 to 20%, with a notable increase across coastal cities. These results are supported by the physically consistent theory suggesting an increase in sub-daily rainfall extremes in response to climate warming over lands of the tropics because of the combination of “positive thermodynamic” and “dynamic contributions.” The observational evidence of increased sub-daily precipitation extremes in response to humid heat stress would help stakeholders and international organizations build resilient strategies to mitigate the impacts of such consecutive hazards.
How to cite: Ganguli, P.: Observational Evidence Reveals Growing Spatial Scales of Compound Occurrence of Humid Heat Stress-Extreme Rainfall in India, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-509, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-509, 2023.
Heat waves can be one of the most dangerous climatic hazards affecting the planet; having dramatic impacts on the health of humans and natural ecosystems as well as on anthropogenic activities, infrastructures and economy. Based on climatic conditions in West Africa, the urban centers of the region appear to be vulnerable to heat waves. The goals of this work is firstly to assess the potential uncertainties encountered in heat waves detection; and secondly analyze their recent trend in West Africa cities during the period 1993-2020. This is done using two state-of-the-art reanalysis products, namely ERA5 and MERRA, as well as two local station datasets, namely Yoff Dakar in Senegal and Aéroport Félix Houphouët Boigny Abidjan in Ivory Coast. An estimate of station data from reanalyses is processed using an interpolation technique : the nearest neighbor to the station with a land sea mask >=0.5; the interpolated temperatures from local station in Dakar and Abidjan, show slightly better correlation with ERA5 than MERRA. Three types of uncertainties are discussed: the first type of uncertainty is related to the reanalyses themselves, the second is related to the sensitivity of heat waves frequency and duration to the threshold values used to monitor them; and the last one is linked to the choice of indicators and the methodology used to define heat waves. Three sorts of heat waves have been analyzed, namely those occurring during daytime, nighttime and both daytime and nighttime concomitantly. Four indicators have been used to analyze heat waves based on 2-m temperature, humidity, 10-m wind or a combination of these. We found that humidity plays an important role in nighttime events; concomitant events detected with wet-bulb temperature are more frequent and located over the north Sahel. For all indicators, we identified 6 years with a significantly higher frequency of events (1998, 2005, 2010, 2016, 2019 and 2020) possibly due to higher sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Atlantic ocean corresponding to El Nino events for some years. A significant increase in the frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves in the cities has been observed during the last decade(2012-2020); this is thought to be a consequence of climate change acting on extreme events
How to cite: Ngoungue Langue, C. G., Lavaysse, C., Vrac, M., and Flamant, C.: Heat waves monitoring over West African cities: uncertainties, characterization and recent trends, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-3460, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-3460, 2023.
Extreme values of wet bulb temperature are often used as indicators of heat stress for humans and other animals. However, humid heat extremes are fundamentally compound events, and a given wet bulb temperature can be generated by various combinations of temperature and humidity. Differentiating between extreme humid heat driven by anomalous temperature versus anomalous humidity is essential to identifying these extremes’ distinct physical drivers and preparing for their individual impacts. Extreme dry heat tends to occur due to processes such as blocking events and land surface feedbacks, and it has the potential to prime regions for wildfires and crop damage. In contrast, extreme humid heat depends more on strong moisture fluxes and vertical stability to moist convection, and it poses high risk for human health through its influence over heat stress.
Here we explore the variety of combinations of temperature and humidity contributing to heat extremes across the globe. In addition to using traditional metrics, we derive a novel thermodynamic state variable named “stickiness.” Directly analogous to oceanographic spice (which quantifies the relative contributions of temperature and salinity to a given seawater density), stickiness quantifies the relative contributions of temperature and specific humidity to a given wet bulb temperature.
Consistent across metrics, we find that extreme humid heat — that is, the occurrence of wet bulb temperatures sufficiently high to impact human health — tends to occur in the presence of anomalously high humidity. Although theoretically humid heat extremes can be achieved at low humidities if temperature is high enough, this tends not to happen in practice. Using stickiness allows for the direct evaluation of the spatial and temporal variability in the temperature- and humidity-dependence of humid heat events, a task that is more complicated and subjective using traditional variables. We identify locations with high variability in stickiness: these include the Persian Gulf, the western United States, and southeast Australia. These locations are key areas where the predictive skill for heat stress-related mortality may improve by considering fluctuations in atmospheric humidity in addition to dry bulb temperature.
How to cite: Ivanovich, C., Raymond, C., Horton, R., and Sobel, A.: Stickiness: A New Variable to Characterize the Temperature and Humidity Contributions toward Extreme Humid Heat, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-10533, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-10533, 2023.
Africa is particularly vulnerable to present day and future temperature extremes due to its (sub)tropical location, its growing population and the challenges of adapting to extreme heat in many of its regions. Globally, the vast majority of past research on the drivers of heatwaves is focused on dry bulb temperature extremes. The drivers of humid heat extremes vary by location and there is limited understanding of the drivers in all parts of the world, but particularly over Africa. Previous published research by the authors showed increased humidity, cloud, rainfall and/or evaporation drive events over most of Africa. However, across the central African equatorial belt, where absolute values of wet bulb temperature are highest, humid heat extremes are driven by both increased temperature and humidity, and cloud and rainfall anomalies are less important. Here we use ERA5 reanalysis to identify multi-day, large-scale humid heat events over different regions of Africa and quantify the roles of moisture transport, cloud, rainfall and atmospheric circulation. We compare and contrast the different sub-tropical and tropical climatic regions of Africa and present a detailed case study of coastal East Africa. East Africa is of particular interest due to its high climatological wet bulb temperatures, its high population, and its coastal location where the land-sea breeze may be a key control on humid heat extremes. We identify the time of day and locations in coastal East Africa that experience the highest daily maximum wet bulb temperatures and discuss the controlling factors.
How to cite: Birch, C., Keane, R., and Marsham, J.: Varying drivers of humid heat extremes over Africa, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-3523, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-3523, 2023.
In 2018, a severe and long-lasting heatwave in East Asia resulted in significant socio-economic damage. To possibly reduce losses, it is necessary to understand the mechanisms of heatwaves and increase their predictability. In this study, we identify the patterns of geopotential height responsible for the 2018 East Asian heatwave from ERA5 observation and compare them with simulations using Global Seasonal Forecasting System version 6 (GloSea6). The K-means clustering analysis reveals an anomalous high-pressure pattern in Eastern Europe, which is mainly associated with the 2018 East Asian heatwave. GloSea6 experiments were then conducted with various initial conditions. Notably, GloSea6 runs reproducing the observed high-pressure anomaly in Eastern Europe shows a good prediction of the 2018 East Asian heatwave. Sensitivity experiments further highlight the lack of soil moisture in Eastern Europe seems to be a key factor for the anomalous high-pressure pattern there, resulting in the 2018 East Asian heatwave. Our results imply that model- and observation-consistent representations of soil moisture in Eastern Europe are required to reduce the uncertainty in predicting the East Asian heatwaves.
This work was funded by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under Grant KMI2020-01212. This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF) grant funded by the Korea government(MSIT) (No. 2022R1A2C1008858).
How to cite: Kang, J., Wie, J., Lee, S.-M., Lee, J., Kim, B.-J., Yun, S., and Moon, B.-K.: Effect of anomalous high-pressure in Eastern Europe on the prediction of 2018 East Asian heatwave, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-5468, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-5468, 2023.
Heatwaves are weather hazards which can influence societal and natural systems. Recently, heatwaves have increased in frequency, duration, and intensity, and this trend is projected to continue as a consequence of climate change. This has triggered extensive research aiming at a better understanding of their impacts and underlying processes. However, the study of heatwaves is hampered by the lack of a common definition, which limits comparability between studies. This applies in particular to the considered time scale.
Here, we determine impact-relevant temporal scales of heatwaves. For this purpose we characterise societal metrics related to health (heat-related hospitalizations, mortality) as well as public attention (Google trends, news articles) in Germany. We calculate country-averaged temperatures and select the warmest periods of varying durations between 1 and 90 days. For each time scale, the societal response is assessed to find the heat wave durations with the most pronounced impacts. This way, we yield impact-relevant heat wave durations for Germany. The results differ slightly between the considered societal metrics but indicate overall that heat waves are most relevant at weekly to monthly time scales. Finally, we also compare impact-relevant heat wave durations between moderate and extreme heat waves, as well as between heat waves occurring individually or jointly with droughts.
Our methodology can be extended to other societal indices, countries, and hazard types to form more meaningful definitions of climate extremes in order to guide future research on these events. An improved understanding of weather and climate hazards with their impacts on society, economy and environmental systems will support better communication for preparation, response, and future adaptation.
How to cite: De Polt, K., Ward, P. J., de Ruiter, M., Bogdanovich, E., Reichstein, M., Frank, D., and Orth, R.: Quantifying impact-relevant heatwave durations, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-12382, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-12382, 2023.
Since 2000, numerous people have suffered from heat-related illness and even died of the heatwave, and more than thousands of people in Korea share the similar pain and loss since 2010. The extremely high temperature and humid are known to be responsible for illness and death; however, the spatial correlation between highest temperature and occurrence of heat-related illness seems relatively low according to the previous studies. There can be many reasons for this, one of which is social aspect. Another reason of the varying probability of occurrence can be the duration of the temperature. Therefore, in this paper, in order to analyze the impacts of persistent high temperatures on the occurrence of heatwave disease, we analyzed the number of days of heatwave days and tropical night days immediately preceding the date of the onset of heat-related illness. This research was supported by a grant(2020-MOIS35-002) of Policy-linked Technology Development Program on Natural Disaster Prevention and Mitigation funded by Ministry of Interior and Safety(MOIS, Korea).
How to cite: Baek, J., Lee, S., and Um, J. A.: Impact of Persistent Heatwave on Heat-Related Illness, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-2554, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-2554, 2023.
Current climate change projections show that the probability of occurrence and the magnitude of heat-wave events are increasing worldwide. These events have to be considered as higher risks for territories and ecosystems, especially where vulnerability is high. The occurrence of heat waves translates into several potential damages such as an increase in fatalities and production losses, degradation of natural and cultural heritages, or the triggering of other hazards such as wildfires. The overlap of all these consequences may lead to both relevant economic losses and additional CO2 emissions affecting our resilience and exacerbating in turn climate change.
In this context, we propose a novel framework for the assessment of risks resulting from heat waves with the aim of quantifying the main contributions to economic losses and CO2 emissions. This framework follows the conceptual definition of risk provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as the product of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability components. The newly-proposed formulation of these components includes the concept of Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) as strategies carried out to enhance our adaptive capacity in a sustainable and cost-effective way. Since NBS consist of natural features that are also exposed to heat waves, the entire life cycle of NBS is considered (i.e., the implementation, maintenance, and possible restorations). The proposed framework stands as a tool for assessing the local impacts of already-implemented or designed NBS in the current and future climate scenarios.
How to cite: Brogno, L., Barbano, F., Leo, L. S., and Di Sabatino, S.: A Novel Framework for the Assessment of Heat-Wave Risks and Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) Impacts, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-7995, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-7995, 2023.
Heatwave episodes have severe consequences in the forms of excess mortality in many regions around the world, shortage of agricultural products, drastic changes in ecosystem function and health risks. Due to the global mean temperature rising, the acceleration of extreme temperature disturbing highly at the local scale level, particularly in urban areas. From an economic growth point of view, Major cities are contributing in terms of GDP more. Heatwaves have impacted European GDP significantly in recent years. Our work is to find the number of frequent heat wave days affecting cities which are contributing to the growth of the economy in terms of GDP and density of population wise in Europe over the near future, mid future and long future using the Apriori algorithm. The features of the heat wave and their attributes have been defined according to the criteria explained in ETCCDI. The dataset that contains heat wave days in Europe derived from EURO-CORDEX climate projections is used in this work.
References
- Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S): Heat waves and cold spells in Europe derived from climate projections, Climate Change Service Climate Data Store (CDS), DOI:10.24381/cds.9e7ca677
- David García-León.et.al, Current and projected regional economic impacts of heatwaves in Europe, Nature Communications, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-26050-z
- Christophe Lavaysse.et.al, Towards a monitoring system of temperature extremes in Europe, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci,doi:10.5194/nhess-2017-181, 2017
- Chloé Prodhomme. et.al, Seasonal prediction of European summer heatwaves,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05828-3
- S. E. Perkins and L.V.Alexander, On the Measurement of Heat Waves, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00383.1
- S. E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick.et.al, Changes in regional heatwave characteristics as a function increasing global temperature, DOI:10.1038/s41598-017-12520-2
- Agrawal, R. and Srikant, Fast Algorithms for Mining Association Rules in Large Databases. Proceedings of the 20th International Conference on Very Large Data Bases, VLDB, Santiago de Chile, 12-15 September 1994, 487-499.
How to cite: Ramadoss, M., Kadow, C., Thirunavukkarasu, M., Chellathurai, S., Begum, S., Duraisamy, N., Bhadushah, A., and Rasheed, A.: Using Apriori Algorithm to Find the Number of Frequent Heat Wave Days Affecting Cities in Europe Over the Future Period , EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-4145, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-4145, 2023.
Posters on site: Wed, 26 Apr, 14:00–15:45 | Hall X4
Heatwaves are one of the most dangerous climatic hazards affecting the health of humans and ecosystems around the world. Accurate forecasts of these dramatic events can be relevant for policy makers, climate services and the local population. In this perspective, the present study addresses the predictability of heatwaves in sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts in the West Africa region over the recent period from 2001 up to 2020. Two models from the S2S Prediction project namely ECMWF and UKMO have been analyzed. Heatwaves have been detected using minimum/maximum values of 2-m temperature as indicators over a period of at least 3 consecutive days. The validation of the model outputs is processed using ERA5 as reference. The global skill of the models in reproducing 2-m temperature is done by calculating the Continuous Rank Probability Score (CRPS). ECMWF model shows more skill in the Guinean region for minimum and maximum values of 2-meter temperatures. The predictability of heatwaves in the models is estimated by the computation of some probabilistic metrics such as : hit-rate and false alarm ratio (FAR). Models show predictive skill of heatwave days greater than the climatology up to 3 weeks lead time in the 3 regions. The FAR values are high and increasing with the lead time. This suggests that the models used to predict heat wave days which are not observed in the reanalysis (ERA5) more than real events. ECMWF shows more predictive skill at weekly time scale with high hit_rate values up to 3 weeks lead time. The accurate representation of the heatwaves intensity in the models remains very challenging at any lead time.
How to cite: Lavaysse, C., Ngoungue Langue, C. G., Flamant, C., and Vrac, M.: Predictability of heat waves over West African main cities, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-16703, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-16703, 2023.
We implement the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT), a standardized heat stress metric, into the Community Land Model (CLM5), the land surface component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM2). This includes the notoriously difficult calculation related to measuring human heat stress: radiation. Following the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) 7243, physical representations of the instruments, a globe thermometer and natural wet bulb thermometer, simulate where humans work and live in non-urban environments. By using ISO 7243 within CLM5, we create a common framework within Earth system models to calculate the impact of radiation on temperature-moisture covariance.
We demonstrate the capabilities of the WBGT using a default configuration of CLM5. We output 4x daily temporal resolutions globally, showing the advantage of simulating the WBGT within each environment. The WBGT outdoor and indoor calibration is simulated in an averaged grid cell, above the vegetation canopy, below the vegetation canopy, and bare ground environments. We examine the 1995 Chicago Heatwave, specifically the rural regions impacted by the heatwave, and demonstrate that the grid cell average calculated at the CLM5 30-minute time step is a poor representation of human environments and can differ by multiple degrees. In high heat stress environments following ISO 7243, a 0.5C change in WBGT can lead to a >10% reduction in labor capacity. This difference in temperature and labor capacity shows that assumptions about calculating a non-linear algorithm — even utilizing high temporal frequency grid cell averages that drive non-linear labor capacity impact models — is a flawed approach that can grossly over or underestimate the impact of heat stress on future climate change projections. To accurately assess the direct exposure, risk, and damage of climate change on people, it is critical to implement diagnostics directly into Earth system models.
How to cite: Buzan, J. and Joos, F.: Substantial Errors Revealed When Calculating Heat Stress Using Grid Cell Averages as Compared to Sub-Grid Cell Environments, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-5245, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-5245, 2023.
Persistent heatwaves cause severe impacts on the ecosystem and society, including increased mortality, and widespread snow and glacier melting. These impacts are expected to escalate in a warmer world, which is likely to witness more frequent and intense heatwaves. South Asia (SA), home to one-fifth of the global population and the largest freshwater resource on the earth, is a hotspot of extreme heatwaves and vulnerable to severe impacts. The region recently experienced its hottest March and April of the century in the year 2022. Here, we use high-resolution, long-term ERA5 (1959–2022) and CPC (1979–2022) data to show that the temperatures in Northwestern South Asia were about 5°C higher than the climatology, which corresponds to about 2.5 standard deviations above the mean. Using maximum temperature-based CTX90pct definition of heatwaves, we show the 42-day-long heatwave in the month of March and April 2022 ranked the most severe heatwave recorded in the available observation period of 65 years. The heatwave engulfed half of Northwest SA, approximately 1.6 million km2, with an average intensity of 1.8°C. The high-temperature driven snow melting during the heatwave nearly vanished the year’s snowpack, which normally lasts till June. With further analysis, we find that the heatwave was initiated by a persistent anticyclonic blocking associated with a sub-tropical Rossby wave, while it was exacerbated by strong positive land-atmosphere feedback due to lack of soil moisture and latent heat. Our findings provide valuable insights into understanding the changes and impacts of heatwaves in the mountainous areas of SA.
How to cite: ul Hassan, W. and Ahmad Nayak, M.: How unexpected was the Spring 2022 South Asian Heatwave, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-11659, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-11659, 2023.
Continuous work in high-temperature environments can lead to occupational injuries, illnesses, and even deaths. Thus, mandatory rest time for appropriate heat management programs must be provided for the safety of workers. In this study, we figured out the minimum rest time for the heat safety of outdoor workers in South Korea. To quantitatively calculate the minimum rest time, the wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) index estimated by 27 synoptic weather stations in South Korea and the national work-rest regimens were used. We assumed that the minimum rest time is the same as the rest time of the work-rest regimens recommended by the WBGT. To examine the intra-seasonal evolution patterns of the minimum rest time, summer seasons are divided into several sub-periods. The average of the hourly WBGT values during summer months from June to August (2009–2018) shows that outdoor workers with a moderate workload (200–350 kcal/h) are exposed to heat stress during approximately 30% of their daytime working hours (06:00–18:00). In the whole summer period, the minimum rest time required for each hour was about 5 minutes for moderate work. But in the mid-summer period from late July to early August, the daily minimum rest time for moderate workload noticeably increases to 20 minutes of mid-day (11:00–15:00). Regionally, no significant increase in rest time was found in areas with high urbanization rates.
How to cite: Lee, S.-W., Park, Y.-S., and Choi, G.: Minimum rest time for outdoor workers exposed to summer heat stress in South Korea, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-2491, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-2491, 2023.
In the recent years, under the influence of land cover changes and climate changes, more frequent extreme heat events have occurred and make people face severer heat stress than before, especially for the people of low socioeconomic status, elderly or other vulnerable groups. Moreover, although land cover changes in rural areas are milder than in urban areas, the rotation of crop fields and expansion of non-vegetation areas in rural areas will alter the landscape and further influence the thermal environment. However, the issues of thermal comfortability in aging rural areas have been rarely studied compared to the urban areas in the past. To quantify and mitigate the risk of heat exposure of the elderly in rural areas, the goal of this study is to analyze the spatial-temporal characteristics of thermal environment and heat-related comfortability in an aging rural areas, Yunlin County, in central Taiwan.
To characterize the spatial-temporal patterns of the thermal environment in Yunlin, this study estimated the spatial distribution of different meteorological parameters from seasonal to annual scales and analyzed the land cover compositions from the satellite remote-sensing images. Furthermore, to evaluate the effects of heat stress on the human comfort in aging rural areas, a thermal comfort index, physiological equivalent temperature (PET), was quantified using the meteorological data from weather stations in Yunlin and surrounding area with the Python package of pythermalcomfort. In addition, the statistical methods will be used to analyze how land use affects the microclimate and comfort in the Yunlin area from the community to regional scales. In brief, the anticipated results from this study are expected to characterize factors that affect the thermal environment in aging rural areas, and further provide management and policy suggestions for the reduction in the risk of heat exposure in the future.
Key words: Thermal comfortability, Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET), Heat stress, Elderly group
How to cite: Wang, T.-Y. and Juang, J.-Y.: Investigation Effects of Environmental and Geographical Factors on Thermal Environment in Aging Rural Areas in Taiwan, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-4904, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-4904, 2023.
Heatwaves and Heat Stress are an increasing risk on a global scale with our changing climate. For Southern Africa, it has been demonstrated that the number of heatwaves and heat stress days have increased since the 1980s. Consequently, a greater proportion of people in the region are exposed to extreme heat for longer periods of time. Extreme heat has been shown to have negative effects on maternal health and birth outcomes and is compounded by existing vulnerabilities such as age and lower socio-economic status. Limited previous research in Africa has demonstrated that exposure to extreme heat in the first weeks of pregnancy can cause complications during and after pregnancy such as pre-eclampsia and gestational diabetes. In addition, it has been found that exposure to extreme heat in the region increases the risk of low birth weight, pre-term birth and in some cases stillbirth. In this study, maternal health data from tertiary hospitals in Johannesburg is analysed against local weather station observations for temperature and heat stress. We assess the threshold at which extreme heat has adverse health outcomes during pregnancy and childbirth (intra-partum) and suggest potential interventions to mitigate against this. This work contributes to calls to improve the understanding of the impacts of extreme heat on maternal and child health in Africa. It also supports work to create global maternal and child climate change health indicators, to better inform adaptation and mitigation efforts.
This research is part of HIGH horizons which is funded by the European Union’s Horizon Research and Innovation programme under grant agreement no 101057843
How to cite: Brimicombe, C., Sachs dos Santos, A., Solarin, I., Maimela, G., Cherish, M., Wieser, K., and Otto, I. M.: The impact of extreme heat during pregnancy and childbirth in Johannesburg, South Africa, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-7581, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-7581, 2023.
Introduction. In choosing a tourist destination, climatic conditions play an important role. Temperature, humidity, cloudiness, wind speed, etc. have an impact on the activities in any resort. The resort of Gura Humorului (47° 33′ 14″ N, 25° 53′ 21″ E) is located in northern Romania, in the Humorului Depression at an average altitude of 470 m. The resort has a bioclimate with sedative properties, an area of 60.9 sq.km and a population of 13667 (2011). Gura Humorului includes the locality of Voroneț, where the Voroneț Monastery (1488), a monument included in the World Cultural Heritage List, is located.
The aim of the study is i) to delimit the periods of the year with thermal comfort/discomfort and ii) to evaluate the climate potential for different outdoor tourist activities in Gura Humorului. As working tools we used the PET bioclimatic index and the climate-tourism scheme (CTIS).
Data and methods. We used daily gridded data (air temperature, relative humidity, cloudiness and average wind speed) for the period 1961-2021 (source ANM, www.ogimet.com ) and hourly gridded data for the period 2015-2021 (source National Air Quality Monitoring Network). The data were processed in Excel and RayMan programs to calculate the PET bioclimatic index and to produce the CTIS.
Results. An analysis of (PET) by decade at Gura Humorului, for the interval 1961-2021, shows that the comfort range (PET values between 18.1-23.0°C) is installed from the 3rd decade of April and maintained until the 2nd decade of October. If in April-May and October the comfort frequency reaches values of 1 to 20%, in June-August the comfort frequency increases to 30-40%. Cold stress becomes dominant in the cold season from the 2nd decade of October to the 1st decade of April. The lowest PET values correspond to December and January when the frequency of PET˂-10°C values exceeds 30-40%. Heating discomfort occurs on summer days but is not significant in intensity and weight. The CTIS includes the analysis of comfort and discomfort given by PET values, which is harmonised with the other climate indicators. Regarding the restrictions given by wet days, fog, precipitation and strong wind, Gura Humorului has favourable conditions for tourism most of the year. There is also a snow cover from December to March, when winter sports can be practised on the nearby ski slopes. The resort becomes one with an extended tourist season.
Conclusions. With comfortable thermo-physiological conditions from May to September, with snow cover from December to March, the resort of Gura Humorului is attractive for outdoor tourist activities for at least 9 months a year. With more flexible management and well-targeted investments, the range of tourist services can be provided at a high and diversified rate for the whole calendar year.
How to cite: Boiciuc, C., Roșu, C., Bistricean, P.-I., and Mihăilă, D.: Climate potential for tourism in Gura Humorului resort, North-East Region of Romania, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-8595, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-8595, 2023.
In the recent years, the long-distance endurance running races, such as half-marathon or marathon, are becoming much more popular in Taiwan. However, due to the frequent hot and humid weather in this low-latitude country, runners in these races usually face the risk of thermal hazards. In order to analyze the heat stress for the runners in such environment, the main objectives of this study are to characterize the thermal environment in road race events and to quantify the risk of thermal hazard for athletes.
This study chose the route of half-marathon of Taipei Marathon, a World Athletics Elite Label race, as the research object. The necessary environmental parameters for risk of thermal hazards along the route were collected by means of mobile monitoring, and the heat stress on the route was evaluated through the Heat Strain Decision Aid model (HSDA) and the thermal index, Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT). To quantify the impact of heat stress on different groups from beginner to elite runners, the spatiotemporal variations of WBGT and body core temperature along the route were further estimated. The results from this study could help the race organizer to identify the high-risk areas during the race planning and help the participants to understand the potential risk of heat stress in the race.
How to cite: Lin, C.-E., Chien, S.-S., and Juang, J.-Y.: Investigating Potential Risk of Thermal Hazards Along Race Routes of Taipei Marathon By Mobile Monitoring and Quantitative Analysis, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-13758, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-13758, 2023.
