NH10.2

NH10 EDI
Advancing critical infrastructure modelling in a complex world
Convener: Elco Koks | Co-conveners: Evelyn MühlhoferECSECS, Jasper VerschuurECSECS, Sadhana NirandjanECSECS, Kees van GinkelECSECS

This session aims to share the latest developments in critical infrastructure risk modelling with a focus on multi-hazard, multi-risk, cascading events, and compound risks.

Critical infrastructure, such as the energy, water and waste systems, transportation networks, telecommunication systems, education, and health infrastructures - play an essential role in societies’ day-to-day functioning. At the same time, occurrences of natural hazards highlight the importance of improving our understanding on how these infrastructures respond under stress: a disruption of a single critical infrastructure service can quickly result in a cascading effect to households, companies, or other infrastructure systems, thereby causing wide-spread impacts to the economy and society.

Compound events and connected extremes put pressure on infrastructure systems beyond their design specifications, making it crucial to understand and incorporate such effects into infrastructure planning and risk assessments. In this session, we therefore encourage abstracts aimed at:
* Improving our understanding of exposure and vulnerability of critical infrastructure systems to (multiple) natural hazards.
* Collecting and analysing empirical data of past events/disruptions to inform, validate and improve risk modelling.
Impact (modelling) that is sensitive to the specificities of different hazards / sub-hazards / concurring multi-hazards (e.g. TC sub-hazards- flash floods bring very different impacts than strong winds, occur at different geographies, etc.)
* Impact modelling that captures network character and interdependencies of critical infrastructures, and modelling that doesn’t end at infrastructure asset damages: e.g. differentiated social impacts, business & supply chain disruptions.
* Dealing with the inherent uncertainty within infrastructure risk modelling and the applicability of these risk models for decision making and adaptation planning. More specifically, we welcome studies applying DMDU (Decision-making Under Deep Uncertainty) approaches to infrastructure risk modelling.
* Progressing the achievement of global goals (e.g. SDGs) in the context of resilient infrastructure and the advancement of accessible infrastructure to the global population.