There has been a recent increase in demand for climate data and insights on the potential impacts of climate change. This is particularly true in the finance sector - in the past 18 months financial regulators in the UK, Europe, USA, Canada and elsewhere globally have all stipulated that large and listed firms are legally required to understand their climate risk and do something to mitigate that risk. The finance sector is not well placed to generate these climate risk insights, motivating the rise of multiple climate risk data providers.

Climate X is a private-sector provider of climate risk analytics and services. Our in-house science team makes use of a wealth of publicly available data in the science that underpins the services we provide; data such as climate models and remote sensing data. We provide science as a service and deliver our data in a way that is useful and used within the finance sector.

I will briefly outline how we use publicly available data to derive climate risk information that is relevant to the finance sector, and how we deliver that data in away that is meaningful to our end users. I will discuss why the data in its raw form doesn’t address sector requirements, and feedback from the sector on how publicly available climate and remote sensing data is used. I will summarise lessons learned from our engagement with finance on how the public sector could provide data which is tailored to end user needs, and is more immediately relevant and useful for adaptation action in this industry.

How to cite: Burke, C., Woodhouse, S., Leach, N., Brennan, J., Reveley, G., Ramsamy, L., Mitchell, H., and Kluza, K.: Climate services for finance, lessons learned and feedback for the public sector, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-5880, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-5880, 2023.

At national and European levels development of climate services is seen as a bridge between climate research and decision makers, meant to mitigate and create a sound basis to adapt to Climate Change. To enhance the quality and relevance of climate services, several actors, namely users, providers, purveyors, and researchers participate to identify and provide through co-design, co-development, and co-delivery the improvements and innovations in climate services that are needed to better inform decision-making processes. Strengthening the two-way interaction between climate modelers and climate service providers will enhance the scientific basis for these services and the relevance of climate research and modelling outputs.

The H2020 EUCP (European Climate Prediction System) project aimed to produce climate information to deliver to intermediate users, such as climate service providers and consultants, that ultimately should enter the decision domain. For this reason, one of the main objectives of the project was to produce prototypes to showcase how project’s resulting climate information could be used in the real world and how they can make a difference. One of the main goals of the engagement approach in the EUCP project is to reduce the gap between ‘top-down’ climate information driven by science and ‘bottom-up’ end-user requirements to increase the credibility and usability of climate information. This is a major barrier to the use of climate information in decision making at present. To overcome this barrier, it is widely recognized that prototyping is a key element that allows users to understand the “science behind” as well as how it could be applied in specific case studies providing valuable comments to improve the prototypes to close the gap with end users.

Similarly, to what happens in producing operational climate services, EUCP prototype production was based on a cycle of prototyping through user trials following the 5Es approach: Explore, Exploit, Expose, Examine, and Expand. It is not a series of sequential steps but an iterative process where a step forward does not imply leaving that stage and not considering it anymore. For instance, understanding the users’ needs is a step that should be considered many times during the development; at the beginning understanding users’ needs should inform the scientific community about research areas of interests, then, user needs should affect how results are shown through an effective display.

This presentation reviews how the 5Es approach was developed throughout the project, who were the actors involved and what instruments for users’ engagement were applied and used in this framework. Moreover, some examples of prototypes will be discussed in detail demonstrating how the 5Es approach is flexible enough to prototype different products. Finally, some lessons learnt in the project will be summarized as guidelines for future research.

How to cite: Delpiazzo, E., Buelow, K., Baulenas Serra, E., Teichmann, C., Hesselbjerg Christensen, J., Bojovic, D., Kalverla, P., and Matte, D.: Prototyping cutting edge science: the EUCP project experience, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-15040, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-15040, 2023.

The European Extreme Events Climate Index (E3CI) is an innovative climate service (operational since January 2021) to assess the frequency and severity of weather-induced hazards over Europe. This service has been funded by Foundation Big Data and Artificial Intelligence for Human Development (IFAB) and developed through the collaboration between Fondazione CMCC Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC) and Leithà Unipol Group. Specifically, E3CI proposes to define a synthetic index aimed at providing information about the areas affected by different types of weather-induced hazards and the significance of such events. At this stage, E3CI permits equipping Europe, SADC (Southern African Development Community) and North America with an index similar to Actuaries Climate Index, (NA-ACI; actuariesclimateindex.org) developed over North America and already fully operational. 

From a methodological point of view, using ERA5 reanalysis data (Hersbach et al., 2020), E3CI permits evaluating seven main dynamics: cold and heat stresses, droughts, extreme precipitation, winds, the predisposing conditions leading to hail events and forest fire. Furthermore, five E3CI components are tested using a subset of regional climate projections from the EURO-CORDEX (Jacob et al., 2014, 2020; Giorgi and Gutowski, 2015) program at the highest available resolution (about 11 km) considering three different future periods (2011-2040; 2041-2070; 2017-2100) and three different concentration scenarios. The data are aggregated at different Administrative unit levels and combined into a single index providing an overall view for the domain and period of interest. A key aspect of E3CI is the standardization of the different components over a reference thirty-year period (1981-2010). It is a key aspect of the process because it makes comparable the outputs returned according to different approaches and for different issues; it can limit, in a way, also the influence of potential weaknesses affecting the original datasets used for computation. 

E3CI applications range in a wide area comprising both scientific and technical use cases. Such information can be useful to adjust rate adequacy levels, improve budgeting capabilities and risk management, designing index-linked financial instruments and new insurance and reinsurance products. In addition, E3CI can be adopted to pursue education and sustainability targets, such as to increase awareness about climate change impacts, to support public decision-making processes for sustainable development, to provide a scientifically-sounding measure to monitor climate trends. Finally, this service can change the way financial and insurance markets operate by providing indices that allow to more accurately measure risks related to extreme weather conditions.

How to cite: Giugliano, G., Rianna, G., Pugliese, A., Barbato, G., Ellena, M., Mercogliano, P., Tirri, A., and LoConti, F.: European Extreme Events Climate Index (E3CI), EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-13344, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-13344, 2023.

Historical climate data is fundamental for understanding local climate trends and extremes and evaluating the impact of climate change on agriculture, food security and water resources. In addition, the data is  used for implementing adaptation measures for protecting lives and adapting socio-economic sectors to the changing climate conditions. While global climate trends can already be assessed with available data, regional data disparities result in blind-spots for climate change assessments—particularly for areas which are the most vulnerable.

To contribute to filling this gap, the International Climate Assessment & Dataset (ICA&D) has been extended to the climate-vulnerable areas of the Caribbean, the Pacific and in 5 sub-regions in Africa. ICA&D provides an accessible, web-based system to collect, prepare, quality control, and analyze basic climatological data with daily resolution. The system was developed over 25 years ago by the Meteorological Service of the Netherlands (KNMI) as the backbone of the European WMO data-node of the Regional Climate Centre (https://www.ecad.eu/) and implemented in Southeast Asia by meteorological service of Indonesia (BMKG). Now, with support from the EU-funded ClimSA project, under which WMO is implementing a €5.5 million grant, ICA&D will be further extended and run by Regional Climate Centers assigned and supported by WMO.

WMO and KNMI collaborated in 2022 through CLIMSA project to expand ICA&D to two pilot regions, the Caribbean and West-Africa on https://caribbean.icad-wmo.org/ and http://west-africa.icad-wmo.org/. The collaboration has led to setting up new websites which are designed to be user friendly and highly cyber secure. The websites, one for each region, consist of information platforms, including a geographical map with the locations of the stations’ datasets, and a feature to quickly plot timeseries from derived data and an e-learning module on the website’s functions. The data sharing policy ensures that access to raw observational data from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) remain restricted while allowing derived indices to be accessed by the public. Indices alone can monitor critical areas and impacts of climate change, such as the temperature of the warmest night of the year, the subsequent impact on health and  induced excess of mortality.

How to cite: van der Schee, M., van den Besselaar, E., van der Schrier, G., Verver, G., Baddour, O., Jepsen, L.-A., Ransom, C., Suwondo, A., Songoto, H., and Allen, T.: Sharing climate data through ICA&D, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-15499, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-15499, 2023.

The 3^rd version of the Climate Vulnerability Monitor (CVM3) is an independent global assessment of the impacts of climate change in the 21st century developed by a scientific consortium for the Climate Vulnerability Forum. It presents specific estimated climate change–attributable impact data that is internationally comparable in 32 biophysical, human health and economic indicators for most countries and all world regions. Based on the latest scenarios developed for the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report, the CVM3 assesses impacts for three scenarios (1.5°C scenario, a below 2°C scenario and a “no climate action” scenario) and three time slices (near-term (2030– mid-point year for 2021–2040), medium (2050) and end of the century (2090)).

The free online tool “CVM Data Explorer” draws on information, data and results of the different work packages made available by the partners through three respective application programming interfaces (APIs). While the health data explorer shows potential changes in climate-related health risks, the economics data explorer illustrates the extent to which climate change is projected to alter macroeconomic indicators. The biophysical explorer presents estimate changes in indicators like near-surface air temperature and precipitation, offers an overview of present attributable impacts as well as covering current and future vulnerability of over 180 countries. based on the given emission scenarios. The tool displays these results of current and projected impacts with maps for the different pathways and timeframes and the underlying data is freely available for download.

A multimedia part (“scrolly-telling”) of the tool takes a narrative-explorative approach to the results using different types of media such as video interviews, animations and interactive elements with local experts. These impact stories for five chosen countries (Bangladesh, Ghana, Kenya, Philippines, St. Lucia) aim to bring global databases together with regional to local impact and vulnerability information and showcase the CVM3 results in a narrative, concrete and exemplary manner.

How to cite: Rott, R., Lissner, T., Martyr-Koller, R., Saeed, F., and Hezel, B.: The 3rd version of the Climate Vulnerability Monitor: a free online tool providing globally comparable biophysical, macroeconomic and health climate impact information at the national level, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-15464, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-15464, 2023.

Access to reliable and skillful weather information could assist smallholder farmers in Bangladesh to reduce their vulnerability to rainfall variability and extremes. The available weather forecast information, however, is still limited in the provision of daily location-specific weather information for smallholder farmers in Bangladesh. Because of this reason, the use of local forecasts is a more favorable and affordable way of accessing weather information for many farmers in low-latitude developing countries. In the WATERAPPscale project, we have initiated a climate information service that provides timely and location-specific weather forecasts for smallholders and established 16 farmer’s weather schools across Bangladesh, where training on interpretation of scientific forecasts (SF), collection of local forecasts (LF) data, and sharing forecast information took place. This study aims to systematically evaluate the performance of the SF and LF used by farmers, by applying a dichotomous method to distinguish yes/no rainfall events. The results were compared with farmers’ perception of the forecast skills. In addition, the skill of a simple hybrid forecast (HF), which is an integrated system of SF and LF, was assessed. The SF and LF data were obtained from the meteoblue hindcast and from the questionnaires, respectively. This study used ERA5 and ground observation datasets as benchmarks for the weather forecasts. Results show that overall, the LF has slightly higher skill than the SF when compared to the ERA5 dataset. The forecast performance, however, reduces by almost half when the ground-based observation is used instead of ERA5, associated with a high false alarm. The evaluation results, however, are contradictory to the farmers’ perception that SF has a much higher performance than LF. Combining the SF and LF into a simple HF generates higher skill than any single forecast alone, which highlights the necessity to develop a hybrid forecast that combines scientific and indigenous weather forecasting for farm decision-making. The developed HF system will deliver a reliable forecast, trustworthy, and conserved indigenous knowledge that has been passed down from generation to generation.   

How to cite: Sutanto, S., Paparrizos, S., Kumar, U., Datta2, D., and Ludwig, F.: The performance of scientific, indigenous, and hybrid weather forecasts: Systematic evaluation and farmers’ perception in Bangladesh, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-2381, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-2381, 2023.

The heatwave in summer of 2018 raised the urgency for adaptation to urban heat in Sweden, today and in the future, due to the experienced challenges and the associated risks with rising temperatures that are amplified by hard constructed surfaces, urban heat island effects, densely populated areas, and an aging population. Planning for adaptation or adaptation-related decision-making demands adequate and tailored data and information. However, research repeatedly argues for the need to co-create climate services with the intended end-users to increase the usability and relevance of climate information. While this has been emphasized for more than a decade, gaps between provided climate information and what stakeholders consider usable remains a challenge. The present study applies a co-creation methodology to design and provide an interactive visualization tool prototype for municipal stakeholders to assist urban climate adaptation in three Swedish cities – Stockholm, Linköping and Norrköping. Close collaboration and dialogues between scientists and municipal stakeholders intend to facilitate the development of usable and relevant climate information. The study is part of a four-year project, BRIGHT - Advancing knowledge and tools for the adaptation of Swedish cities to heat (https://www.smhi.se/forskning/forskningsenheter/meteorologi/bright-1.181447).

We present results of the initial phase of the co-creation process. Within this first phase of interactive dialogues and workshops with municipal stakeholders, adaptation to urban heat has been identified as a new challenge for municipalities in Sweden, which needs to be considered in a similar manner as e.g., flood risks. Thorough analyses of the complex interactions of factors affecting the exposure and vulnerability to heat are required to inform adaptation decisions and planning within the three Swedish cities. Urban climate information may serve multiple objectives for the municipalities, and hence for different municipal users, calling for user-oriented design of the visualization tool. Three objectives were identified based on the stakeholder dialogues: to use the visualization tool (i) as a basis for municipality officials’ communication with politicians; (ii) in the administrative strategy work for municipal organizations such as childcare, health and social care institutions and, (iii) in the urban planning process for adaptation measures. Stakeholders stressed that municipalities’ adaptation must both focus on existing environments and planned environments, and moreover, that the urban climate information and relevant supplementary information differ depending on planning process or objective. In addition to high-resolution simulated climate data, information on people’s locations and movements, perceptions of heat, current buildings and planned changes in the environment, tree crown canopy, access to cool areas, and the value of green urban environments, are examples of variables suggested to be included in the tool to serve these objectives.

As the co-creation process continues, the tool will be designed, validated, and evaluated together with stakeholders to ensure the tailoring of climate information to the needs and requirements of users to decrease the usability gap. 

How to cite: Wiréhn, L., Neset, T.-S., Navarra, C., and Amorim, J. H.: Co-creating a visualization tool for adaptation to urban heat in Swedish municipalities, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-11152, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-11152, 2023.

Weather and Climate Information Services (WCIS) for agriculture provide weather
and climate forecasts on various timescales, but soil moisture information that is crucial for plant
growth and optimizing the agricultural yield is still missing. We, therefore, have developed DROP
app, a WCIS with a soil moisture module. This app was designed with and for smallholder farmers
working on rainfed agriculture in northern Ghana and has three main features: 1) information on
location-specific scientific weather forecasts (SF), 2) local weather forecasts (LF) from smallholder
farmers, and 3) the soil moisture forecasts. The forecasts generate a high probability of rain
detection (POD), with a minimum value of 0.7 obtained from LF. The hybrid forecast (HF) that
integrates the SF and LF yields the highest POD value of 0.9. However, the hybrid system also
has a high number of false alarms which results in an overall lower forecast performance of HF
compared to SF. More than half of the farmers (58%) perceived that soil moisture forecasts have
good performance. After the implementation of the app, farmers involved in the study were mostly
satisfied with the use and the features of the app. By using the app, they were able to adjust their
farming activities, such as sowing, planting and weeding dates, fertilizer and herbicide application,
and harvesting. Although some limitations exist, the DROP app has potential to be used worldwide
in order to deliver actionable knowledge on WCIS for climate-smart farm decision-making.

How to cite: Nauta, L., Sutanto, S., Paparrizos, S., and Supit, I.: The DROP app: a soil moisture enabled climate information service tailored to smallholder farmerseeds, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-6438, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-6438, 2023.

Tourism is an important socio-economic sector, contributing in 2021 with about 6.6% to EU GDP and accounting for 10.3% of the total labour force (https://wttc.org/DesktopModules/MVC/FactSheets/pdf/704/38_20220613172620_EuropeanUnionLCU2022_.pdf ). It is also important for the well-being of both tourists and residents (e.g. Uysal et al, 2015; Godovykh et al, 2021) by providing extending opportunities for leisure activities, social and cultural interactions, economic benefits etc. Climate data and services bring their contribution in this area too. Most information available and easily accessible for tourists on weather, climate and other environmental aspects is not too specific, usually referring to single, well-known meteorological parameters (air temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration) and being in the form of monthly means and extremes. But the tourists may benefit and are interested as well in information assembled from several meteorological parameters, able to give an overall, more concentrated indication on weather characteristics suitable for outdoor leisure activities. Also, there are climate and environmental information of greater interest for tourists depending on the type of destination (e.g., rural) and which are not easily accessible for the usual tourist.

Aiming to answer to this interest, the WeCENT (Weather, Climate and Environmental Information for Tourism) project proposes a prototype of a climate service targeting the tourists. A variety of tourism-customized information, adapted for urban, rural, mountain and beach destinations in Italy and Romania is built based on climate reanalysis, satellite-based products, analysis and forecast products. The information is freely available and accessible through the project website (https://pric.unive.it/projects/wecent/home#c4213).

References

Godovykh, M., Ridderstaat, J. and Fyall, A. (2021): The well-being impacts of tourism: Long-term and short-term effects of tourism development on residents’ happiness, Tourism Economics, 2021, Vol. 0(0) 1–20, DOI: 10.1177/13548166211041227

Uysal, M., et al., Quality of life (QOL) and well-being research in tourism, Tourism Management (2015), http:// dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2015.07.013

How to cite: Velea, L. and Gallo, A.: WeCENT – a prototype of climate service for tourism, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-6868, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-6868, 2023.

The German coastal areas of the North Sea and Baltic Sea: Wadden Sea World Heritage Site, 23000 km² of shipping lanes, around 600 km of dyke line and home of over 7 million people.

Numerous actors such as coastal conservationists and port operators work on and with the coast. Climate change poses challenges for all of them. In order to meet these, knowledge about changes to the system due to climate change must be compiled. Possible impacts on the various fields of action must be evaluated and communicated.

The Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency (BSH) is providing climate information based on observations and remote sensing data as well as water level forecasts, storm surge warnings and ice information for the German coast. In recent years, these fully established services were complemented by the DAS core service “Climate and Water” which is one of the measures translating the political framework “German Strategy for Adaption to Climate Change” (DAS) into action.

We will provide information on the existing product portfolio of the national climate services, ranging from historical ice conditions to information on storms and sea level variations. Additionally, our service now includes information from high resolution climate simulations, and first results of the BSH model runs will be presented here. Special focus will be on the establishement of a feedback loop with important customers  and on the challenges in the user-provider-dialog.

How to cite: Jochumsen, K., Janssen, F., Kruschke, T., Brauch, J., and Ehlers, B.-M.: National climate services for the German coasts, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-7306, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-7306, 2023.

In this study we examine the use of seasonal forecasts on predicting the heat stress conditions in the summer months over the region of Attica in Greece using a number of meteorologically based heat stress indices, namely effective temperature, humidex, discomfort index and heat index (Buzan et al. 2015). To this aim, the fifth generation ECMWF seasonal forecasting system (SEAS5) hindcasts for the period 1993 to 2016 available in C3S Climate Data Store are used. The variables to calculate daily heat stress indices values include instantaneous outputs at 12 UTC for 2-meter temperature, northward and eastward near-surface wind components, as well as 2-m dewpoint temperature. In order to statistically downscale and verify seasonal forecasts, the state-of-the-art global reanalysis dataset ERA5-Land of Copernicus CDS is used. The verification of the heat stress indices re-forecasts is performed using adequate probabilistic verification measures of discrimination and reliability.

Preliminary results indicate that for the majority of the indices, forecasts initialized in June and to a lesser extent in May exhibit statistically significant skill scores in predicting above normal heat stress conditions, while for forecasts initialized in March and April no statistically significant skill is found identifying these forecasts in the not useful category.

How to cite: Varotsos, K. V., Karali, A., and Giannakopoulos, C.: Seasonal forecasts and heat stress in an eastern Mediterranean environment, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-11278, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-11278, 2023.

Coastal Tourist destinations need to adapt to climate variability and change to maintain their tourist competitiveness and appeal. To do this, it is crucial to know the climatic potential of the activities which the destination offers and to manage the location’s natural resources. The Sustainable development goals (SDG) offer guidelines for the development of a tourist destination. In the TURLIT-ODS project, we aim to contribute directly to SDG 3, Good health and well being; SDG 8, decent work and economic growth; SDG 12, Responsible consumption and production and SDG 13, Climate Action.

The last decades have seen advances in climate services for multiple fields. Despite this, the determination of the expected optimal days for different nautical sports activities around the central-western Mediterranean has not been done yet.

The present research explores, through a co-creation process with local agents, how the atmospheric/oceanic conditions influence nautical sports activity development. With the gained knowledge, we computed the optimal expected days for the specific activities identified by the stakeholders using ocean buoy data and wind and wave data from the SIMAR numerical model owned by Puertos del Estado.

Thanks to this approach, we transform raw data into structured information to provide the knowledge of optimal expected days for different nautical sports activities: sailing, stand-up paddling, kayaking, windsurfing, swimming in open waters, diving, snorkeling, water walking, underwater fishing, SUP- yoga, rowing, kitesurfing, surfing, wing foil, jet ski and other recreative uses (like the banana boat).

The computation of the optimal days for each one of these activities along Tarragona’s province coast allows us to understand the availability of that conditions and assist decision-making by looking at information that facilitates the definition of diversification strategies of the tourist activities.

By considering the meteorological-oceanographical conditions of a territory and, according to the results related to a destination, new tourist products and/or redesigned products offered are depicted. In this way, the destination of Tarragona’s province makes a step closer to the path of the sustainability of their leisure and tourist activities settled on the shore.

We acknowledge  Diputació Provincial de Tarragona for funding the project TURLIT (T22240S), Puertos del Estado (Ministry of Transport, Mobility and Urban Agenda of Spain), which provided the data for this study, and the Municipality of Calafell for supporting the project and facilitating spaces to generate the co-creation process.

How to cite: Boqué Ciurana, A., Olano Pozo, J. X., Cisneros Bermejo, M., Cimolai, C., Vásquez Yañez, R., Dermit, D., and Aguilar, E.: Co-created Climate information with local agents for nautical sports activities in the central-western Mediterranean, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-13063, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-13063, 2023.

Seasonal climate predictions are becoming important to increase preparedness and adapt agricultural decision making before and within the growing season. Evapotranspiration represents a major component of the water cycle and agricultural water balance, and is thus of key relevance also for assessment of crop growth and irrigation water needs. This study investigates the comparison of different empirical methods for reference evapotranspiration calculation with the reference Penman Monteith method, implemented in the AquaCrop model, over different climate zones of Croatia using national high resolution high quality meteorological dataset in comparison with EOBS and AgERA5 datasets. This research aims to address the appropriateness of using the method with limited data to reduce uncertainty in crop yield modelling with seasonal climate forecasts.

The motivation for the research stems from the need to use a reduced number of parameters for ETo calculation, which as such enters the crop yield model. Estimation of seasonal predictions of ETo relies on the skill of prediction of multiple meteorological variables; in the case of Penman Monteith, the estimates would rely on the skill of temperature, vapour pressure, winds speed and global solar radiation prediction. Reducing the number of input variables for estimating the reference evapotranspiration might reduce the overall reliance on the limited skill of seasonal predictions of above-mentioned meteorological variables. 

In testing the usefulness of the methods, the interpolated field of the national data network, EOBS dataset, and AgERA5 for the period from 1981 to 2020 are used. Preliminary results show that for the continental area of Croatia the Trajkovic method is satisfactory for ETo calculation, and the EOBS dataset provides better results than AgERA5 when compared to high resolution national dataset. In addition, we analyse the ETo seasonal prediction skill by comparing both methods, original Penman Monteith and Trajkovic method with reduced number of input variables. This will give us an important insight on the relevance of the meteorological dataset choice as well as the ET0 method selection for seasonal prediction purposes. Since there is no comprehensive research on the reference crop evapotranspiration in Croatia, this research fills the gap of knowledge at the local level, but also contributes to the global picture

How to cite: Sviličić, P., Ceglar, A., Anić, M., and Milić, V.: Evaluation of reference evapotranspiration techniques for seasonal forecasting applications in Croatia, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-13802, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-13802, 2023.

This work describes an exploratory approach to assist decision-makers in urban areas for addressing heat hazard risks in near real-time (https://rebrand.ly/suhi_eu). The proposed service utilizes MSG Land Surface Temperature - All Sky (MLST-AS) data to compute the surface urban heat island (SUHI) and other relevant indicators for major cities in Europe on a daily basis.

The MLST-AS data has a temporal resolution of 30 minutes and a spatial resolution of 3.1 km² at nadir. The SUHI is a measure of the difference in temperature between urban and rural areas and can significantly impact the local climate and environment. The climate service, which is based on a Shiny application written in R and Python, provides an interactive format that allows users to visualize the daily evolution of the SUHI computed from the MLST-AS data for each city, as well as relevant indicators computed at each grid point for the entire European continent. The SUHI is calculated using the methodology proposed in a previous study (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2021.101056) and the results are presented in an easy-to-use format suitable for a wide range of end users, including policymakers, city planners, and the general public. The use of the MLST-AS data allows for accurate and detailed analysis of the SUHI and other indicators in these cities, providing valuable information for urban planning and climate adaptation efforts. The main outcome of this work is the development of an interactive tool for understanding and analysing the SUHI and other indicators in European cities, which can have important implications for urban design and climate resilience measures.

This study has been funded by the project Synergies between Urban Heat Island and Heat Wave Risks in Romania: Climate Change Challenges and Adaptation Options (SynUHI) PN-III-P4-PCE-2021-1695. We gratefully acknowledge the use of the European Weather Cloud in the context of this research.

How to cite: Dumitrescu, A. and Cheval, S.: Climate service for managing the heat hazard risk in urban areas using all-sky land surface temperature, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-14668, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-14668, 2023.

TRACCS (TRAnsformative Advances in Climate modelling for Climate Services) is a new French programme which will start in 2023 and run for the next eight years. TRACCS will combine several types of activities:
i) process modelling for simulating climate from global to local scales, so as to provide reliable climate information for assessing both mitigation scenarios and local adaptation actions and their feedback effects on the climate,
ii) adaptation of computer codes to new computing architectures, to seize the opportunities offered by exascale in terms of increasing spatial resolution, better representing the complexity of the climate system, and exploring large sets of simulations and obtain better information on model and scenario-related uncertainties,
iii) the use of advanced statistical methods and artificial intelligence to characterise climate extremes, accelerate models, and develop emulators (fast statistical models) to better quantify uncertainties,
iv) the estimation of the impacts of climate change on different activity sectors and different territories in order to co-construct adaptation,
and v) the development of a dialogue between scientists and stakeholders, teaching and communication with all audiences in order to co-construct prototypes of climate services in a transdisciplinary approach.
These activities, together with the training of a new generation of experts in climate change and its impacts, have the ambition to transform the way scientific advances on climate change are shared with stakeholders, thereby multiplying the capacity for science-based adaptation and mitigation.

The programme is jointly managed by CNRS and Meteo-France and involves key partners (CEA, IRD, CERFACS, Université-Grenoble-Alpes, Sorbonne Université, Université Versailles-Saint-Quentin, Université Paris-Saclay) in modelling and understanding climate change and its potential impacts.

Our poster presentation will give us an opportunity to present this new project and build collaborations with similar projects at the European and international level.

How to cite: Kageyama, M., Morin, S., Anquetin, S., de Noblet, N., Terray, L., Boucher, O., Deshayes, J., Durand, G., Salas y Mélia, D., Bouilloud, L., and Braconnot, P.: Introducing the French national programme TRACCS: TRAnsformative Advances in Climate modelling for Climate Services, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-14935, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-14935, 2023.

The residential sector is the leading electricity consumer in France, representing more than one-third of the final electricity uses. As a major contributor to the energy demand, this sector must implement a pathway to reduce energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions. However, the relevance of related policies may depend on the correct estimation of the evolution of future Residential Electricity Consumption (REC) under future climate. Future REC has already been studied at the national scale. However, since the important determinants of the future REC, such as evolution in the use of AC and the meteorological conditions, especially the temperature, have a large geographical variability, REC should be studied locally. To project the French REC in a warmer climate at a fine spatial scale, a linear thermosensitivity model fitted by annual observed electricity consumption data and historical temperature is applied at the smallest French geographic census unit named Ilots Regreoupés pour l'Information Statistical (IRIS), which divides the territory into meshes of about 2000 inhabitants per unit cell. Once the current electricity sensitivity is fitted for each IRIS, the future REC is computed by applying the model to temperature projections under climate change scenario RCP8.5 up until 2100 based on 5 CORDEX climate simulations. At the same time, extreme cases of two non-climatic factors related to the use of Air-Conditioning (AC, the AC adoption rate and electricity sensitivity in cooling conditions) are also studied for future cooling needs. If only the temperature evolves, the results show that the future REC should decline with decreasing heating needs in most cells but with spatial variability and an increase in the REC for some cells. Results also show a larger disparity within administrative regions containing between a few hundred and a few thousand IRIS than between administrative regions, which justifies that future REC studies based on climate projections should be studied locally. Including AC scenarios may modify the REC negative trend in more parts of France: the REC is expected to increase in the South-East. Such an increase in electricity demand due to AC usage may have detrimental effects, not only because the total REC may increase by 4\% by 2040 and even 45\% until 2100 under the most extreme AC scenario and should thus emit more greenhouse gas, but also because the use of AC is expected to increase outdoor temperature and the heat island effect. Further studies need to focus on alternative solutions to improve inhabitants' comfort during heat waves, such as large-scale urban greening and white-coated buildings, to reduce potential AC uses, especially for the regions that may face an increase in REC. Also, the thermal performance of the building, as well as the energy efficiency of AC appliances, need to be improved in those regions. Our study can help quantify the range of improvement needed to maintain at least energy demand for cooling unchanged in a warmer climate.

How to cite: Tao, Q., Naveau, M., Tantet, A., Badosa, J., and Drobinski, P.: Future residential electricity consumption under climate change in France: application of a fine-granularity thermosensitivity model., EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-15003, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-15003, 2023.