CL5.6 | Climate Services - Underpinning Science
PICO
Climate Services - Underpinning Science
Convener: Alessandro Dell'Aquila | Co-conveners: Andrej Ceglar, Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego, Christiana Photiadou, Verónica TorralbaECSECS
PICO
| Tue, 25 Apr, 08:30–12:30 (CEST)
 
PICO spot 5
Tue, 08:30
Climate services challenge the traditional interface between users and providers of climate information as it requires the establishment of a dialogue between subjects, who often have limited knowledge of each other’s activities and practices. Increasing the understanding and usability of climate information for societal use has become a major challenge where economic growth, and social development crucially depends on adaptation to climate variability and change.

To this regard, climate services do not only create user-relevant climate information but also stimulate the need to quantify vulnerabilities and come up with appropriate adaptation solutions that can be applied in practice.

The operational generation, management and delivery of climate services poses a number of new challenges to the traditional way of accessing and distributing climate data. With a growing private sector playing the role of service provider is important to understand what are the roles and the responsibilities of the publicly funded provision of climate data and information and services.

This session aims to gather best practices and lessons learnt, for how climate services can successfully facilitate adaptation to climate variability and change by providing climate information that is tailored to the real user need.
Contributions are strongly encouraged from international efforts (GFCS, CSP, ClimatEurope…); European Initiatives (H2020, ERA4CS, C3S, JPI-Climate) as well as national, regional and local experiences.

PICO: Tue, 25 Apr | PICO spot 5

Chairpersons: Andrej Ceglar, Alessandro Dell'Aquila, Verónica Torralba
Large scale information
08:30–08:32
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PICO5.1
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EGU23-13442
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On-site presentation
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Alessandro Dell'Aquila, Luigi Ponti, Marta Terrado, Andria Nicodemou, Freddy Rivas, Marta Bruno Soares, and Massimiliano Pasqui

The MED-GOLD H2020 project held its final showcase event online on 29-30 March 2022, with more than 200 participants, to disseminate and share end-user success stories from early adopters of the pilot climate services developed under the MED-GOLD project for Grape/wine, OLives/olive oil and Durum wheat/pasta sectors. See https://www.med-gold.eu/event/med-gold-final-showcase-event/  

A major focus of the event was to provide a hands-on approach to understanding and using the uncertainty associated with climate services. The attendees had the opportunity to learn about the climate services developed throughout this 4-year EU-funded project and how they can help the agriculture sector face the challenges posed by climate change.

The two-day event provided an insight into the lessons learned during the project. MED-GOLD users from the agriculture sector, representing the grapes, olives and durum wheat crops – the Portuguese wine company SOGRAPE, the Spanish cooperative Dcoop, and the Italian food company Barilla – presented their success stories as early adopters of the MED-GOLD climate services. The users also stressed the importance of a co-production approach in creating useful and usable tools for the agriculture sector. The event was also the opportunity to discuss the climate and policies nexus for enlightening cross-beneficial needs, success stories and best practices in supporting adaptation and green transition action. Involved panelists, with a wide range of personal and professional experiences, discussed the gap between knowledge and action, bringing their evidence to identify success stories and the missing gaps.

Attendees also had the chance to engage in discussions with the presenters and other project participants, as well as to visit the virtual stands and view the posters, videos, and other materials produced by the MED-GOLD team.

How to cite: Dell'Aquila, A., Ponti, L., Terrado, M., Nicodemou, A., Rivas, F., Bruno Soares, M., and Pasqui, M.: Showcasing stakeholders’ experiences: lessons learnt from MED-GOLD final online event, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-13442, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-13442, 2023.

08:32–08:34
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PICO5.2
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EGU23-5880
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
Claire Burke, Sally Woodhouse, Nick Leach, James Brennan, Graham Reveley, Laura Ramsamy, Hamish Mitchell, and Kamil Kluza

There has been a recent increase in demand for climate data and insights on the potential impacts of climate change. This is particularly true in the finance sector - in the past 18 months financial regulators in the UK, Europe, USA, Canada and elsewhere globally have all stipulated that large and listed firms are legally required to understand their climate risk and do something to mitigate that risk. The finance sector is not well placed to generate these climate risk insights, motivating the rise of multiple climate risk data providers.

Climate X is a private-sector provider of climate risk analytics and services. Our in-house science team makes use of a wealth of publicly available data in the science that underpins the services we provide; data such as climate models and remote sensing data. We provide science as a service and deliver our data in a way that is useful and used within the finance sector.

I will briefly outline how we use publicly available data to derive climate risk information that is relevant to the finance sector, and how we deliver that data in away that is meaningful to our end users. I will discuss why the data in its raw form doesn’t address sector requirements, and feedback from the sector on how publicly available climate and remote sensing data is used. I will summarise lessons learned from our engagement with finance on how the public sector could provide data which is tailored to end user needs, and is more immediately relevant and useful for adaptation action in this industry.

How to cite: Burke, C., Woodhouse, S., Leach, N., Brennan, J., Reveley, G., Ramsamy, L., Mitchell, H., and Kluza, K.: Climate services for finance, lessons learned and feedback for the public sector, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-5880, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-5880, 2023.

08:34–08:36
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PICO5.3
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EGU23-5225
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On-site presentation
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Hajar Filahi, Hiba Omrani, Philippe Drobinski, and Sandra Claudel

The energy demand will potentially be affected by climate change in the future. The heating needs are expected to decrease while the cooling needs are expected to increase under projected future global warming. The question addressed in this work in the impact and the quantification of this changes on the temporal fragmentation of energy demand during winter and summer. This fragmentation creates a need for flexibility in energy production which constitutes a challenge for energy systems. In this work, the question is addressed by exploiting a biais-corrected and downscaled climate projections from CMIP6 simulations using a statistical method at a spatial resolution of 0.25° x 0.25° over Europe. Ten variables were used to estimate the main change on energy demand related to heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD) under four scenarios (ssp1-2.6, ssp2-4.6, ssp3-7.0 and ssp5-8.5). The results showed a large decrease of HDD over Europe and an increase of CDD under all of scenarios ssp considered in this work. The analyses of the heating and air conditioning period duration and frequency showed a fragmentation of the periods of use of heating during winter in the future which can lead potentially to a fragmentation of energy demand related to heating. On the other hand, the periods of use of air conditioning in summer are expected to be more frequent and longer but still very fragmented in time compared to the present climate.

How to cite: Filahi, H., Omrani, H., Drobinski, P., and Claudel, S.: Impacts of climate change on temporal fragmentation of energy demand in Europe, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-5225, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-5225, 2023.

08:36–08:38
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PICO5.4
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EGU23-15040
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Virtual presentation
Elisa Delpiazzo, Katharina Buelow, Eulalia Baulenas Serra, Claas Teichmann, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Dragana Bojovic, Peter Kalverla, and Dominic Matte

At national and European levels development of climate services is seen as a bridge between climate research and decision makers, meant to mitigate and create a sound basis to adapt to Climate Change. To enhance the quality and relevance of climate services, several actors, namely users, providers, purveyors, and researchers participate to identify and provide through co-design, co-development, and co-delivery the improvements and innovations in climate services that are needed to better inform decision-making processes. Strengthening the two-way interaction between climate modelers and climate service providers will enhance the scientific basis for these services and the relevance of climate research and modelling outputs.

The H2020 EUCP (European Climate Prediction System) project aimed to produce climate information to deliver to intermediate users, such as climate service providers and consultants, that ultimately should enter the decision domain. For this reason, one of the main objectives of the project was to produce prototypes to showcase how project’s resulting climate information could be used in the real world and how they can make a difference. One of the main goals of the engagement approach in the EUCP project is to reduce the gap between ‘top-down’ climate information driven by science and ‘bottom-up’ end-user requirements to increase the credibility and usability of climate information. This is a major barrier to the use of climate information in decision making at present. To overcome this barrier, it is widely recognized that prototyping is a key element that allows users to understand the “science behind” as well as how it could be applied in specific case studies providing valuable comments to improve the prototypes to close the gap with end users.

Similarly, to what happens in producing operational climate services, EUCP prototype production was based on a cycle of prototyping through user trials following the 5Es approach: Explore, Exploit, Expose, Examine, and Expand. It is not a series of sequential steps but an iterative process where a step forward does not imply leaving that stage and not considering it anymore. For instance, understanding the users’ needs is a step that should be considered many times during the development; at the beginning understanding users’ needs should inform the scientific community about research areas of interests, then, user needs should affect how results are shown through an effective display.

This presentation reviews how the 5Es approach was developed throughout the project, who were the actors involved and what instruments for users’ engagement were applied and used in this framework. Moreover, some examples of prototypes will be discussed in detail demonstrating how the 5Es approach is flexible enough to prototype different products. Finally, some lessons learnt in the project will be summarized as guidelines for future research.

How to cite: Delpiazzo, E., Buelow, K., Baulenas Serra, E., Teichmann, C., Hesselbjerg Christensen, J., Bojovic, D., Kalverla, P., and Matte, D.: Prototyping cutting edge science: the EUCP project experience, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-15040, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-15040, 2023.

08:38–08:40
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PICO5.5
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EGU23-13344
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Giuseppe Giugliano, Guido Rianna, Alessandro Pugliese, Giuliana Barbato, Marta Ellena, Paola Mercogliano, Antonio Tirri, and Francesco LoConti

The European Extreme Events Climate Index (E3CI) is an innovative climate service (operational since January 2021) to assess the frequency and severity of weather-induced hazards over Europe. This service has been funded by Foundation Big Data and Artificial Intelligence for Human Development (IFAB) and developed through the collaboration between Fondazione CMCC Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC) and Leithà Unipol Group. Specifically, E3CI proposes to define a synthetic index aimed at providing information about the areas affected by different types of weather-induced hazards and the significance of such events. At this stage, E3CI permits equipping Europe, SADC (Southern African Development Community) and North America with an index similar to Actuaries Climate Index, (NA-ACI; actuariesclimateindex.org) developed over North America and already fully operational. 

From a methodological point of view, using ERA5 reanalysis data (Hersbach et al., 2020), E3CI permits evaluating seven main dynamics: cold and heat stresses, droughts, extreme precipitation, winds, the predisposing conditions leading to hail events and forest fire. Furthermore, five E3CI components are tested using a subset of regional climate projections from the EURO-CORDEX (Jacob et al., 2014, 2020; Giorgi and Gutowski, 2015) program at the highest available resolution (about 11 km) considering three different future periods (2011-2040; 2041-2070; 2017-2100) and three different concentration scenarios. The data are aggregated at different Administrative unit levels and combined into a single index providing an overall view for the domain and period of interest. A key aspect of E3CI is the standardization of the different components over a reference thirty-year period (1981-2010). It is a key aspect of the process because it makes comparable the outputs returned according to different approaches and for different issues; it can limit, in a way, also the influence of potential weaknesses affecting the original datasets used for computation. 

E3CI applications range in a wide area comprising both scientific and technical use cases. Such information can be useful to adjust rate adequacy levels, improve budgeting capabilities and risk management, designing index-linked financial instruments and new insurance and reinsurance products. In addition, E3CI can be adopted to pursue education and sustainability targets, such as to increase awareness about climate change impacts, to support public decision-making processes for sustainable development, to provide a scientifically-sounding measure to monitor climate trends. Finally, this service can change the way financial and insurance markets operate by providing indices that allow to more accurately measure risks related to extreme weather conditions.

How to cite: Giugliano, G., Rianna, G., Pugliese, A., Barbato, G., Ellena, M., Mercogliano, P., Tirri, A., and LoConti, F.: European Extreme Events Climate Index (E3CI), EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-13344, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-13344, 2023.

08:40–08:42
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PICO5.6
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EGU23-6545
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Climate Information Services for smallholder farmers in the global South
(withdrawn)
Spyridon Paparrizos, Samuel Sutanto, Uthpal Kumar, Gordana Kranjac-Berisavljevic, and Fulco Ludwig
08:42–08:44
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PICO5.7
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EGU23-7848
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On-site presentation
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Paul-Antoine Michelangeli, Sylvie Parey, Julien Boé, Hiba Omrani, Hajar Filahi, Lila Collet, Boutheina Oueslati, Katy Pol, and Carole Legorgeu

As a power company, EDF must adapt its activities and assets to the ongoing climate change. EDF/R&D has been involved in climate research for a long time and giving the ever-growing number of climate impact studies to conduct, it has been decided in 2014 to create an in-house climate service. This service is meant as a bridge between the scientific community and EDF’s operational needs. It relies on three main pillars: data, tools and expertise.

With the availability of the new CMIP6 climate projections and the huge amount of data involved, the question of the choice of projections to be downloaded has arisen. It has been studied in collaboration with the CERFACS global change team. Using a set of criteria, a sub-ensemble of around 20 climate models with four emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) has been selected. The criteria are the following:

  • availability of the necessary variables at the daily timescale
  • available projections for the 4 scenarios
  • consideration of model dependencies and Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity
  • representation of the ensemble spread in terms of climate response
  • model performance across France

Models with an ECS inside the very likely range of observed climate sensitivity estimated in IPCC AR6 are preferred, while one or two higher sensitivity models are also selected as “low likelihood high impact” scenarios, used for the most sensitive assets.

Once all the projections have been retrieved, this database stands as the reference database for all EDF impact studies. Then, depending on the impact study, a further step of sub-sampling inside the database may be necessary.

The selection will be presented and motivated, together with some examples of use in impact studies, with or without further sub-sampling.

How to cite: Michelangeli, P.-A., Parey, S., Boé, J., Omrani, H., Filahi, H., Collet, L., Oueslati, B., Pol, K., and Legorgeu, C.: Selection of a sub-ensemble of CMIP6 projections for the EDF in-house climate service, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-7848, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-7848, 2023.

08:44–08:46
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PICO5.8
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EGU23-15499
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On-site presentation
Marlies van der Schee, Else van den Besselaar, Gerard van der Schrier, Gé Verver, Omar Baddour, Lisa-Anne Jepsen, Claire Ransom, Aris Suwondo, Henri Songoto, and Teddy Allen

Historical climate data is fundamental for understanding local climate trends and extremes and evaluating the impact of climate change on agriculture, food security and water resources. In addition, the data is  used for implementing adaptation measures for protecting lives and adapting socio-economic sectors to the changing climate conditions. While global climate trends can already be assessed with available data, regional data disparities result in blind-spots for climate change assessments—particularly for areas which are the most vulnerable.

To contribute to filling this gap, the International Climate Assessment & Dataset (ICA&D) has been extended to the climate-vulnerable areas of the Caribbean, the Pacific and in 5 sub-regions in Africa. ICA&D provides an accessible, web-based system to collect, prepare, quality control, and analyze basic climatological data with daily resolution. The system was developed over 25 years ago by the Meteorological Service of the Netherlands (KNMI) as the backbone of the European WMO data-node of the Regional Climate Centre (https://www.ecad.eu/) and implemented in Southeast Asia by meteorological service of Indonesia (BMKG). Now, with support from the EU-funded ClimSA project, under which WMO is implementing a €5.5 million grant, ICA&D will be further extended and run by Regional Climate Centers assigned and supported by WMO.

WMO and KNMI collaborated in 2022 through CLIMSA project to expand ICA&D to two pilot regions, the Caribbean and West-Africa on https://caribbean.icad-wmo.org/ and http://west-africa.icad-wmo.org/. The collaboration has led to setting up new websites which are designed to be user friendly and highly cyber secure. The websites, one for each region, consist of information platforms, including a geographical map with the locations of the stations’ datasets, and a feature to quickly plot timeseries from derived data and an e-learning module on the website’s functions. The data sharing policy ensures that access to raw observational data from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) remain restricted while allowing derived indices to be accessed by the public. Indices alone can monitor critical areas and impacts of climate change, such as the temperature of the warmest night of the year, the subsequent impact on health and  induced excess of mortality.

How to cite: van der Schee, M., van den Besselaar, E., van der Schrier, G., Verver, G., Baddour, O., Jepsen, L.-A., Ransom, C., Suwondo, A., Songoto, H., and Allen, T.: Sharing climate data through ICA&D, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-15499, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-15499, 2023.

08:46–08:48
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PICO5.9
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EGU23-15464
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ECS
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On-site presentation
René Rott, Tabea Lissner, Rosanne Martyr-Koller, Fahad Saeed, and Bernd Hezel

The 3rd version of the Climate Vulnerability Monitor (CVM3) is an independent global assessment of the impacts of climate change in the 21st century developed by a scientific consortium for the Climate Vulnerability Forum. It presents specific estimated climate change–attributable impact data that is internationally comparable in 32 biophysical, human health and economic indicators for most countries and all world regions. Based on the latest scenarios developed for the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report, the CVM3 assesses impacts for three scenarios (1.5°C scenario, a below 2°C scenario and a “no climate action” scenario) and three time slices (near-term (2030– mid-point year for 2021–2040), medium (2050) and end of the century (2090)).

The free online tool “CVM Data Explorer” draws on information, data and results of the different work packages made available by the partners through three respective application programming interfaces (APIs). While the health data explorer shows potential changes in climate-related health risks, the economics data explorer illustrates the extent to which climate change is projected to alter macroeconomic indicators. The biophysical explorer presents estimate changes in indicators like near-surface air temperature and precipitation, offers an overview of present attributable impacts as well as covering current and future vulnerability of over 180 countries. based on the given emission scenarios. The tool displays these results of current and projected impacts with maps for the different pathways and timeframes and the underlying data is freely available for download.

A multimedia part (“scrolly-telling”) of the tool takes a narrative-explorative approach to the results using different types of media such as video interviews, animations and interactive elements with local experts. These impact stories for five chosen countries (Bangladesh, Ghana, Kenya, Philippines, St. Lucia) aim to bring global databases together with regional to local impact and vulnerability information and showcase the CVM3 results in a narrative, concrete and exemplary manner.

How to cite: Rott, R., Lissner, T., Martyr-Koller, R., Saeed, F., and Hezel, B.: The 3rd version of the Climate Vulnerability Monitor: a free online tool providing globally comparable biophysical, macroeconomic and health climate impact information at the national level, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-15464, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-15464, 2023.

08:48–08:50
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PICO5.10
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EGU23-14170
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ECS
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On-site presentation
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Carmen Gonzalez Romero, Angel G. Muñoz, Lisa Goddard, Asuncion Ledas St.Clair, Francisco Doblas- Reyes, Marta Terrado, and Dragana Bojovic

Societies use climate services as part of their mitigation and adaptation strategies to a changing climate (e.g., Cortekar et al., 2016; Vaughan and Dessai, 2014; Scott, Lemieux and Malon, 2011), and have been defined and framed around particular single applications or sectors, either agriculture, health, energy, water management or disaster risk management (WMO, 2009, Council, 2001)- just to mention a few. Whilst this can bring potential benefits such as high specialization and adaptation (WMO, 2019; Lemos, 2015), co-benefits of articulated climate services among different sectors have not been fully assessed in the broader societal system, where these are developed and implemented. Understanding and valuing the nexus between the sectors during the design, development and implementation of climate services might help project optimization, and eventually benefit the community, country, entire region or society.

Climate services ecosystems are defined -slightly modifying the business-perspective definition of Vargo and Akaka (2012)- as relatively self-contained, self-adjusting systems of resource-integrating actors connected by shared institutional goals, and mutual-value creation through exchange of climate services (Goddard, Gonzalez Romero, et al., 2020). In other words, a climate-services ecosystem involves interactions between different sectors sharing the same or similar climate services, which enhances resilience, and lends efficiency and value, by optimally orchestrating the available solutions. These ecosystems tend to be more robust to climate impacts than a collection of climate services focused on certain applications or just one sector, because shocks to one part of the ecosystem are redistributed and dampened through the entire network.

 

Since by definition these ecosystems take advantage of existing climate services in different society-relevant sectors, the overall benefit is directly dependent on the ecosystem configuration itself. The ability to scale high-quality climate services, not just to other locations but to other sectors, and the ability for these climate-service networks to organize into ecosystems is hypothesized to be a crucial ingredient to resilience in the face of climate variability and change, given that resources are finite.The analysis of the ecosystems though Dynamical Casual Network Theory allows us to understand, characterize and forsee potential behaviour and changes in relationships between the elements of the networks, supporting the decision-making processes within. In combination with projects like Climateurope2, this concept of climate services ecosystems can help with the standardization of climate services.

How to cite: Gonzalez Romero, C., Muñoz, A. G., Goddard, L., St.Clair, A. L., Doblas- Reyes, F., Terrado, M., and Bojovic, D.: Climate Services Ecosystems: an opportunity to increase optimization, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-14170, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-14170, 2023.

08:50–10:15
Chairpersons: Verónica Torralba, Alessandro Dell'Aquila, Andrej Ceglar
National & Regional Climate services
10:45–10:47
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PICO5.1
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EGU23-6963
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Virtual presentation
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Tim van der Schriek, Christos Giannakopoulos, Nikolaos Roukounakis, Anna Karali, Gianna Kitsara, Giannis Lemesios, and Myrto Gratsea

This study assesses the vulnerability of Greek airports to the impacts of future climate change. Its key aim is to increase the understanding and usability of climate information for airport operators and airlines. The extraction of relevant climate change information from published, and in-house produced, scientific data is therefore informed by a dialogue with the end-users and thus tailored by the needs of the airport operators. The vulnerability assessment methodology uses risk categories and, specifically, critical climate change threshold values concerning airport infrastructure. The approach is aligned with the current airport industry standard as outlined in “ACI Policy Brief – Airport’s Resilience and Adaptation to a Changing Climate (2018)”. The vulnerability matrix has been adapted to the Greek situation and may be used in future regional infrastructure reviews.

This study used projected climate change data from: (i) the Greek “Regional Adaptation Action Plans” (RAAPS), (ii) the national climate change adaptation strategy, developed in the framework of the EU integrated project “LIFE-IP AdaptInGR” (https://www.adaptivegreece.gr), and (iii) the assessment of the impacts of climate change and extremes in Greece derived from the nationally funded CLIMPACT project (www.climpact.gr). Extreme weather trends were assessed using up-to-date climate change projections on a regional scale. Specific reference is made to considerations of whether design inputs/standards for infrastructure works are likely to change in the future.

This vulnerability study addresses the need for the early identification of climate change risks associated with Greek airports and their effective management through implementing adaptation measures. Recommendations may feed into individual Master Plans of airports. We show how climate services can successfully facilitate airport adaptation to climate change by providing information that is tailored to the real user need.

How to cite: van der Schriek, T., Giannakopoulos, C., Roukounakis, N., Karali, A., Kitsara, G., Lemesios, G., and Gratsea, M.: Tailoring climate change information to assess the vulnerability of Greek airports, in support of prioritising adaptation measures, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-6963, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-6963, 2023.

10:47–10:49
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PICO5.2
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EGU23-2381
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On-site presentation
Samuel Sutanto, Spyridon Paparrizos, Uthpal Kumar, Dilip Datta2, and Fulco Ludwig

Access to reliable and skillful weather information could assist smallholder farmers in Bangladesh to reduce their vulnerability to rainfall variability and extremes. The available weather forecast information, however, is still limited in the provision of daily location-specific weather information for smallholder farmers in Bangladesh. Because of this reason, the use of local forecasts is a more favorable and affordable way of accessing weather information for many farmers in low-latitude developing countries. In the WATERAPPscale project, we have initiated a climate information service that provides timely and location-specific weather forecasts for smallholders and established 16 farmer’s weather schools across Bangladesh, where training on interpretation of scientific forecasts (SF), collection of local forecasts (LF) data, and sharing forecast information took place. This study aims to systematically evaluate the performance of the SF and LF used by farmers, by applying a dichotomous method to distinguish yes/no rainfall events. The results were compared with farmers’ perception of the forecast skills. In addition, the skill of a simple hybrid forecast (HF), which is an integrated system of SF and LF, was assessed. The SF and LF data were obtained from the meteoblue hindcast and from the questionnaires, respectively. This study used ERA5 and ground observation datasets as benchmarks for the weather forecasts. Results show that overall, the LF has slightly higher skill than the SF when compared to the ERA5 dataset. The forecast performance, however, reduces by almost half when the ground-based observation is used instead of ERA5, associated with a high false alarm. The evaluation results, however, are contradictory to the farmers’ perception that SF has a much higher performance than LF. Combining the SF and LF into a simple HF generates higher skill than any single forecast alone, which highlights the necessity to develop a hybrid forecast that combines scientific and indigenous weather forecasting for farm decision-making. The developed HF system will deliver a reliable forecast, trustworthy, and conserved indigenous knowledge that has been passed down from generation to generation.   

How to cite: Sutanto, S., Paparrizos, S., Kumar, U., Datta2, D., and Ludwig, F.: The performance of scientific, indigenous, and hybrid weather forecasts: Systematic evaluation and farmers’ perception in Bangladesh, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-2381, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-2381, 2023.

10:49–10:51
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PICO5.3
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EGU23-3613
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ECS
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
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Timo Kelder, Hasse Goosen, Jan Kadijk, and Felix van Veldhoven

The real estate sector is in the spotlight of EU regulations given its high environmental impact. Technical screening criteria were established, and organisations now need to align with the EU Taxonomy. As these organisations often lack climate change expertise, a large number of (often commercial) providers have developed different methods to support the real estate sector in assessing physical climate risk. This created the challenge of transparency, the lack of which limits trust and the ability to improve, compare and combine the results of different assessments: the ‘black-box’ approaches.

In an attempt to ‘open the black box’ in the Netherlands, a large consortium of financial institutions, knowledge institutes, consultants and governments has developed a ‘Framework for Climate Adaptive Buildings’. We will present this framework with the aim of laying the foundations for a common language and a level playing field for climate adaptation in the built environment. The framework combines an estimation of climate threats to the surroundings of buildings with the vulnerability of the building itself to identify appropriate adaptation measures. We will discuss the process of developing this framework, which featured extensive end-user involvement and co-production. Much emphasis was placed on the comparability and reproducibility of the resulting climate risk assessments by referring to freely available, national-level climate data, with transparency about the underlying methods.

Climate service providers can use the framework as a starting point and build upon it with their existing approaches. As such, the framework ensures a level playing field for climate risk assessments for the real estate sector for Dutch assets. Upscaling the framework to the wider EU region is of great interest, as many investors have assets in multiple countries. A large challenge is the trade-off between comparable EU-wide datasets or less comparable but more reliable local data sources. We will discuss this challenge based on our experiences through the H2020 REACHOUT project before concluding with the takeaways from both the Dutch Framework for Climate Adaptive Buildings and the REACHOUT project.

How to cite: Kelder, T., Goosen, H., Kadijk, J., and van Veldhoven, F.: Opening the ‘black-box’ of climate risk assessments for real estate portfolios: lessons from The Netherlands, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-3613, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-3613, 2023.

10:51–10:53
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PICO5.4
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EGU23-11152
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Lotten Wiréhn, Tina-Simone Neset, Carlo Navarra, and Jorge H. Amorim

The heatwave in summer of 2018 raised the urgency for adaptation to urban heat in Sweden, today and in the future, due to the experienced challenges and the associated risks with rising temperatures that are amplified by hard constructed surfaces, urban heat island effects, densely populated areas, and an aging population. Planning for adaptation or adaptation-related decision-making demands adequate and tailored data and information. However, research repeatedly argues for the need to co-create climate services with the intended end-users to increase the usability and relevance of climate information. While this has been emphasized for more than a decade, gaps between provided climate information and what stakeholders consider usable remains a challenge. The present study applies a co-creation methodology to design and provide an interactive visualization tool prototype for municipal stakeholders to assist urban climate adaptation in three Swedish cities – Stockholm, Linköping and Norrköping. Close collaboration and dialogues between scientists and municipal stakeholders intend to facilitate the development of usable and relevant climate information. The study is part of a four-year project, BRIGHT - Advancing knowledge and tools for the adaptation of Swedish cities to heat (https://www.smhi.se/forskning/forskningsenheter/meteorologi/bright-1.181447).

We present results of the initial phase of the co-creation process. Within this first phase of interactive dialogues and workshops with municipal stakeholders, adaptation to urban heat has been identified as a new challenge for municipalities in Sweden, which needs to be considered in a similar manner as e.g., flood risks. Thorough analyses of the complex interactions of factors affecting the exposure and vulnerability to heat are required to inform adaptation decisions and planning within the three Swedish cities. Urban climate information may serve multiple objectives for the municipalities, and hence for different municipal users, calling for user-oriented design of the visualization tool. Three objectives were identified based on the stakeholder dialogues: to use the visualization tool (i) as a basis for municipality officials’ communication with politicians; (ii) in the administrative strategy work for municipal organizations such as childcare, health and social care institutions and, (iii) in the urban planning process for adaptation measures. Stakeholders stressed that municipalities’ adaptation must both focus on existing environments and planned environments, and moreover, that the urban climate information and relevant supplementary information differ depending on planning process or objective. In addition to high-resolution simulated climate data, information on people’s locations and movements, perceptions of heat, current buildings and planned changes in the environment, tree crown canopy, access to cool areas, and the value of green urban environments, are examples of variables suggested to be included in the tool to serve these objectives.

As the co-creation process continues, the tool will be designed, validated, and evaluated together with stakeholders to ensure the tailoring of climate information to the needs and requirements of users to decrease the usability gap. 

How to cite: Wiréhn, L., Neset, T.-S., Navarra, C., and Amorim, J. H.: Co-creating a visualization tool for adaptation to urban heat in Swedish municipalities, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-11152, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-11152, 2023.

10:53–10:55
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PICO5.5
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EGU23-5156
|
On-site presentation
Climate studies by the Regional Environment Protection Agency of Sardinia (ARPAS) as a contribution to the Regional Strategy of Adaptation to Climate Change (SRACC)
(withdrawn)
Alessandro M.S. Delitala, Michele Fiori, Pier Luigi Trudu, Giuliano Fois, Lorenzo Smorlesi, and Carlotta Usala
10:55–10:57
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PICO5.6
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EGU23-6438
|
On-site presentation
Lisanne Nauta, Samuel Sutanto, Spyridon Paparrizos, and Iwan Supit

Weather and Climate Information Services (WCIS) for agriculture provide weather
and climate forecasts on various timescales, but soil moisture information that is crucial for plant
growth and optimizing the agricultural yield is still missing. We, therefore, have developed DROP
app, a WCIS with a soil moisture module. This app was designed with and for smallholder farmers
working on rainfed agriculture in northern Ghana and has three main features: 1) information on
location-specific scientific weather forecasts (SF), 2) local weather forecasts (LF) from smallholder
farmers, and 3) the soil moisture forecasts. The forecasts generate a high probability of rain
detection (POD), with a minimum value of 0.7 obtained from LF. The hybrid forecast (HF) that
integrates the SF and LF yields the highest POD value of 0.9. However, the hybrid system also
has a high number of false alarms which results in an overall lower forecast performance of HF
compared to SF. More than half of the farmers (58%) perceived that soil moisture forecasts have
good performance. After the implementation of the app, farmers involved in the study were mostly
satisfied with the use and the features of the app. By using the app, they were able to adjust their
farming activities, such as sowing, planting and weeding dates, fertilizer and herbicide application,
and harvesting. Although some limitations exist, the DROP app has potential to be used worldwide
in order to deliver actionable knowledge on WCIS for climate-smart farm decision-making.

How to cite: Nauta, L., Sutanto, S., Paparrizos, S., and Supit, I.: The DROP app: a soil moisture enabled climate information service tailored to smallholder farmerseeds, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-6438, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-6438, 2023.

10:57–10:59
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PICO5.7
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EGU23-6868
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Virtual presentation
Liliana Velea and Alessandro Gallo

Tourism is an important socio-economic sector, contributing in 2021 with about 6.6% to EU GDP and accounting for 10.3% of the total labour force (https://wttc.org/DesktopModules/MVC/FactSheets/pdf/704/38_20220613172620_EuropeanUnionLCU2022_.pdf ). It is also important for the well-being of both tourists and residents (e.g. Uysal et al, 2015; Godovykh et al, 2021) by providing extending opportunities for leisure activities, social and cultural interactions, economic benefits etc. Climate data and services bring their contribution in this area too. Most information available and easily accessible for tourists on weather, climate and other environmental aspects is not too specific, usually referring to single, well-known meteorological parameters (air temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration) and being in the form of monthly means and extremes. But the tourists may benefit and are interested as well in information assembled from several meteorological parameters, able to give an overall, more concentrated indication on weather characteristics suitable for outdoor leisure activities. Also, there are climate and environmental information of greater interest for tourists depending on the type of destination (e.g., rural) and which are not easily accessible for the usual tourist.

Aiming to answer to this interest, the WeCENT (Weather, Climate and Environmental Information for Tourism) project proposes a prototype of a climate service targeting the tourists. A variety of tourism-customized information, adapted for urban, rural, mountain and beach destinations in Italy and Romania is built based on climate reanalysis, satellite-based products, analysis and forecast products. The information is freely available and accessible through the project website (https://pric.unive.it/projects/wecent/home#c4213).

 

References

Godovykh, M., Ridderstaat, J. and Fyall, A. (2021): The well-being impacts of tourism: Long-term and short-term effects of tourism development on residents’ happiness, Tourism Economics, 2021, Vol. 0(0) 1–20, DOI: 10.1177/13548166211041227

Uysal, M., et al., Quality of life (QOL) and well-being research in tourism, Tourism Management (2015), http:// dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2015.07.013

How to cite: Velea, L. and Gallo, A.: WeCENT – a prototype of climate service for tourism, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-6868, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-6868, 2023.

10:59–11:01
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PICO5.8
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EGU23-7306
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On-site presentation
Kerstin Jochumsen, Frank Janssen, Tim Kruschke, Jennifer Brauch, and Birte-Marie Ehlers

The German coastal areas of the North Sea and Baltic Sea: Wadden Sea World Heritage Site, 23000 km² of shipping lanes, around 600 km of dyke line and home of over 7 million people.

Numerous actors such as coastal conservationists and port operators work on and with the coast. Climate change poses challenges for all of them. In order to meet these, knowledge about changes to the system due to climate change must be compiled. Possible impacts on the various fields of action must be evaluated and communicated.

The Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency (BSH) is providing climate information based on observations and remote sensing data as well as water level forecasts, storm surge warnings and ice information for the German coast. In recent years, these fully established services were complemented by the DAS core service “Climate and Water” which is one of the measures translating the political framework “German Strategy for Adaption to Climate Change” (DAS) into action.

We will provide information on the existing product portfolio of the national climate services, ranging from historical ice conditions to information on storms and sea level variations. Additionally, our service now includes information from high resolution climate simulations, and first results of the BSH model runs will be presented here. Special focus will be on the establishement of a feedback loop with important customers  and on the challenges in the user-provider-dialog.

How to cite: Jochumsen, K., Janssen, F., Kruschke, T., Brauch, J., and Ehlers, B.-M.: National climate services for the German coasts, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-7306, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-7306, 2023.

11:01–11:03
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PICO5.9
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EGU23-15101
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On-site presentation
|
Massimiliano Pasqui, Ramona Magno, Sara Quaresima, Leandro Rocchi, Elena Rapisardi, Arianna Di Paola, and Edmondo Di Giuseppe

Water management received increasing attention in the last decades since it is a key to coping with climate change and global warming. Within this framework, water scarcity will be one of the main issues to be addressed by humans, mainly because of its subsequent effects on, but not limited to, the agricultural sector. To tackle this challenge, the Drought Observatory (DO) of CNR-IBE developed an operational climate service to provide seasonal forecasting, of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) to support drought risk management over the Mediterranean area. 

The forecast tool stands on the most recent and evolute version of the ECMWF numerical seasonal forecast system, named SEAS, (5 and 5.1). Each month, from 2017 onwards, SEAS5 provides an ensemble of 51 members of daily simulations, lasting seven months each; these simulations are freely accessible from the Copernicus Data Store (CDS). In addition, from 1981 to 2016, CDS provided a hindcast of 25 members simulation runs (named System 4). SEAS daily precipitation seasonal forecasts, with a horizontal resolution of 1°x1°, are then bias adjusted using the Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) dataset (version 2.8). MSWEP is a global precipitation product with an original 3-hourly, 0.1° resolution available from 1979 to the present; it merges gauges, satellite, and reanalysis data to obtain high-quality precipitation estimates at every location. The bias adjustment is computed using the CSTools R Package (CSTools: Assessing Skill of Climate Forecasts on Seasonal-to-Decadal Timescales) applying a quantile-quantile mapping algorithm. This algorithm adjusts/corrects the quantiles of the modelled distribution (the raw SEAS5 daily precipitation distribution) by using an observed distribution set as a reference (the MSWEP daily precipitation distribution). Thus each SEAS5 grid-points of each ensemble member is 1) reprojected onto the highest resolution MSWEP dataset, and then 2) the resulting high-resolution daily time-series precipitation distribution is adjusted using a quantile transformation. A 1981 – 2016 period is selected to adjust and train the quantile mapping algorithm. From the resulting high resolution and bias-adjusted daily rainfall forecast dataset, we then compute the SPI index for a series of timescales: 1, 3 and 6 months, for the period 1981 onwards.  

From the verification analysis seasonal forecast skills vary on time and geographical areas. It is thus possible to identify windows of opportunity for specific tasks in cooperation with users. Within this framework, bias-corrected seasonal forecasts are valuable supporting information for water resources management and decision-making processes. During the drought that occurred in the summer of 2022, the DO was widely used by national and international media to deliver accurate information on the drought trend. This fact underlines the need for timely and science-based data to inform also the wider public. 

These new bias-adjusted forecasts, along with the empirical seasonal forecasts and other monitoring drought and vegetation indices, will be freely accessible through the Drought Observatory Climate Service (https://drought.climateservices.it). 

How to cite: Pasqui, M., Magno, R., Quaresima, S., Rocchi, L., Rapisardi, E., Di Paola, A., and Di Giuseppe, E.: Bias-adjusted SPI seasonal forecasts for the Euro-Mediterranean domain, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-15101, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-15101, 2023.

11:03–11:05
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PICO5.10
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EGU23-11278
|
Virtual presentation
Konstantinos V. Varotsos, Anna Karali, and Christos Giannakopoulos

In this study we examine the use of seasonal forecasts on predicting the heat stress conditions in the summer months over the region of Attica in Greece using a number of meteorologically based heat stress indices, namely effective temperature, humidex, discomfort index and heat index (Buzan et al. 2015). To this aim, the fifth generation ECMWF seasonal forecasting system (SEAS5) hindcasts for the period 1993 to 2016 available in C3S Climate Data Store are used. The variables to calculate daily heat stress indices values include instantaneous outputs at 12 UTC for 2-meter temperature, northward and eastward near-surface wind components, as well as 2-m dewpoint temperature. In order to statistically downscale and verify seasonal forecasts, the state-of-the-art global reanalysis dataset ERA5-Land of Copernicus CDS is used. The verification of the heat stress indices re-forecasts is performed using adequate probabilistic verification measures of discrimination and reliability.

Preliminary results indicate that for the majority of the indices, forecasts initialized in June and to a lesser extent in May exhibit statistically significant skill scores in predicting above normal heat stress conditions, while for forecasts initialized in March and April no statistically significant skill is found identifying these forecasts in the not useful category.

How to cite: Varotsos, K. V., Karali, A., and Giannakopoulos, C.: Seasonal forecasts and heat stress in an eastern Mediterranean environment, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-11278, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-11278, 2023.

11:05–11:07
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PICO5.11
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EGU23-13063
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Anna Boqué Ciurana, Jon Xavier Olano Pozo, Mercè Cisneros Bermejo, Caterina Cimolai, Ricardo Vásquez Yañez, Daniel Dermit, and Enric Aguilar

Coastal Tourist destinations need to adapt to climate variability and change to maintain their tourist competitiveness and appeal. To do this, it is crucial to know the climatic potential of the activities which the destination offers and to manage the location’s natural resources. The Sustainable development goals (SDG) offer guidelines for the development of a tourist destination. In the TURLIT-ODS project, we aim to contribute directly to SDG 3, Good health and well being; SDG 8, decent work and economic growth; SDG 12, Responsible consumption and production and SDG 13, Climate Action.

The last decades have seen advances in climate services for multiple fields. Despite this, the determination of the expected optimal days for different nautical sports activities around the central-western Mediterranean has not been done yet.

The present research explores, through a co-creation process with local agents, how the atmospheric/oceanic conditions influence nautical sports activity development. With the gained knowledge, we computed the optimal expected days for the specific activities identified by the stakeholders using ocean buoy data and wind and wave data from the SIMAR numerical model owned by Puertos del Estado.

Thanks to this approach, we transform raw data into structured information to provide the knowledge of optimal expected days for different nautical sports activities: sailing, stand-up paddling, kayaking, windsurfing, swimming in open waters, diving, snorkeling, water walking, underwater fishing, SUP- yoga, rowing, kitesurfing, surfing, wing foil, jet ski and other recreative uses (like the banana boat).

The computation of the optimal days for each one of these activities along Tarragona’s province coast allows us to understand the availability of that conditions and assist decision-making by looking at information that facilitates the definition of diversification strategies of the tourist activities.

By considering the meteorological-oceanographical conditions of a territory and, according to the results related to a destination, new tourist products and/or redesigned products offered are depicted. In this way, the destination of Tarragona’s province makes a step closer to the path of the sustainability of their leisure and tourist activities settled on the shore.

We acknowledge  Diputació Provincial de Tarragona for funding the project TURLIT (T22240S), Puertos del Estado (Ministry of Transport, Mobility and Urban Agenda of Spain), which provided the data for this study, and the Municipality of Calafell for supporting the project and facilitating spaces to generate the co-creation process.

How to cite: Boqué Ciurana, A., Olano Pozo, J. X., Cisneros Bermejo, M., Cimolai, C., Vásquez Yañez, R., Dermit, D., and Aguilar, E.: Co-created Climate information with local agents for nautical sports activities in the central-western Mediterranean, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-13063, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-13063, 2023.

11:07–11:09
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PICO5.12
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EGU23-13802
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Petra Sviličić, Andrej Ceglar, Mislav Anić, and Velimir Milić

Seasonal climate predictions are becoming important to increase preparedness and adapt agricultural decision making before and within the growing season. Evapotranspiration represents a major component of the water cycle and agricultural water balance, and is thus of key relevance also for assessment of crop growth and irrigation water needs. This study investigates the comparison of different empirical methods for reference evapotranspiration calculation with the reference Penman Monteith method, implemented in the AquaCrop model, over different climate zones of Croatia using national high resolution high quality meteorological dataset in comparison with EOBS and AgERA5 datasets. This research aims to address the appropriateness of using the method with limited data to reduce uncertainty in crop yield modelling with seasonal climate forecasts.

The motivation for the research stems from the need to use a reduced number of parameters for ETo calculation, which as such enters the crop yield model. Estimation of seasonal predictions of ETo relies on the skill of prediction of multiple meteorological variables; in the case of Penman Monteith, the estimates would rely on the skill of temperature, vapour pressure, winds speed and global solar radiation prediction. Reducing the number of input variables for estimating the reference evapotranspiration might reduce the overall reliance on the limited skill of seasonal predictions of above-mentioned meteorological variables. 

In testing the usefulness of the methods, the interpolated field of the national data network, EOBS dataset, and AgERA5 for the period from 1981 to 2020 are used. Preliminary results show that for the continental area of Croatia the Trajkovic method is satisfactory for ETo calculation, and the EOBS dataset provides better results than AgERA5 when compared to high resolution national dataset. In addition, we analyse the ETo seasonal prediction skill by comparing both methods, original Penman Monteith and Trajkovic method with reduced number of input variables. This will give us an important insight on the relevance of the meteorological dataset choice as well as the ET0 method selection for seasonal prediction purposes. Since there is no comprehensive research on the reference crop evapotranspiration in Croatia, this research fills the gap of knowledge at the local level, but also contributes to the global picture

How to cite: Sviličić, P., Ceglar, A., Anić, M., and Milić, V.: Evaluation of reference evapotranspiration techniques for seasonal forecasting applications in Croatia, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-13802, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-13802, 2023.

11:09–11:11
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PICO5.13
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EGU23-14668
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On-site presentation
Alexandru Dumitrescu and Sorin Cheval

This work describes an exploratory approach to assist decision-makers in urban areas for addressing heat hazard risks in near real-time (https://rebrand.ly/suhi_eu). The proposed service utilizes MSG Land Surface Temperature - All Sky (MLST-AS) data to compute the surface urban heat island (SUHI) and other relevant indicators for major cities in Europe on a daily basis.

The MLST-AS data has a temporal resolution of 30 minutes and a spatial resolution of 3.1 km2 at nadir. The SUHI is a measure of the difference in temperature between urban and rural areas and can significantly impact the local climate and environment. The climate service, which is based on a Shiny application written in R and Python, provides an interactive format that allows users to visualize the daily evolution of the SUHI computed from the MLST-AS data for each city, as well as relevant indicators computed at each grid point for the entire European continent. The SUHI is calculated using the methodology proposed in a previous study (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2021.101056) and the results are presented in an easy-to-use format suitable for a wide range of end users, including policymakers, city planners, and the general public. The use of the MLST-AS data allows for accurate and detailed analysis of the SUHI and other indicators in these cities, providing valuable information for urban planning and climate adaptation efforts. The main outcome of this work is the development of an interactive tool for understanding and analysing the SUHI and other indicators in European cities, which can have important implications for urban design and climate resilience measures.

This study has been funded by the project Synergies between Urban Heat Island and Heat Wave Risks in Romania: Climate Change Challenges and Adaptation Options (SynUHI) PN-III-P4-PCE-2021-1695. We gratefully acknowledge the use of the European Weather Cloud in the context of this research.

How to cite: Dumitrescu, A. and Cheval, S.: Climate service for managing the heat hazard risk in urban areas using all-sky land surface temperature, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-14668, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-14668, 2023.

11:11–11:13
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PICO5.14
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EGU23-14935
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On-site presentation
Masa Kageyama, Samuel Morin, Sandrine Anquetin, Nathalie de Noblet, Laurent Terray, Olivier Boucher, Julie Deshayes, Gaël Durand, David Salas y Mélia, Ludovic Bouilloud, and Pascale Braconnot

TRACCS (TRAnsformative Advances in Climate modelling for Climate Services) is a new French programme which will start in 2023 and run for the next eight years. TRACCS will combine several types of activities:
i) process modelling for simulating climate from global to local scales, so as to provide reliable climate information for assessing both mitigation scenarios and local adaptation actions and their feedback effects on the climate,
ii) adaptation of computer codes to new computing architectures, to seize the opportunities offered by exascale in terms of increasing spatial resolution, better representing the complexity of the climate system, and exploring large sets of simulations and obtain better information on model and scenario-related uncertainties,
iii) the use of advanced statistical methods and artificial intelligence to characterise climate extremes, accelerate models, and develop emulators (fast statistical models) to better quantify uncertainties,
iv) the estimation of the impacts of climate change on different activity sectors and different territories in order to co-construct adaptation,
and v) the development of a dialogue between scientists and stakeholders, teaching and communication with all audiences in order to co-construct prototypes of climate services in a transdisciplinary approach.
These activities, together with the training of a new generation of experts in climate change and its impacts, have the ambition to transform the way scientific advances on climate change are shared with stakeholders, thereby multiplying the capacity for science-based adaptation and mitigation.

The programme is jointly managed by CNRS and Meteo-France and involves key partners (CEA, IRD, CERFACS, Université-Grenoble-Alpes, Sorbonne Université, Université Versailles-Saint-Quentin, Université Paris-Saclay) in modelling and understanding climate change and its potential impacts.

Our poster presentation will give us an opportunity to present this new project and build collaborations with similar projects at the European and international level.

How to cite: Kageyama, M., Morin, S., Anquetin, S., de Noblet, N., Terray, L., Boucher, O., Deshayes, J., Durand, G., Salas y Mélia, D., Bouilloud, L., and Braconnot, P.: Introducing the French national programme TRACCS: TRAnsformative Advances in Climate modelling for Climate Services, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-14935, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-14935, 2023.

11:13–11:15
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PICO5.15
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EGU23-15003
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Qiqi Tao, Marie Naveau, Alexis Tantet, Jordi Badosa, and Philippe Drobinski

The residential sector is the leading electricity consumer in France, representing more than one-third of the final electricity uses. As a major contributor to the energy demand, this sector must implement a pathway to reduce energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions. However, the relevance of related policies may depend on the correct estimation of the evolution of future Residential Electricity Consumption (REC) under future climate. Future REC has already been studied at the national scale. However, since the important determinants of the future REC, such as evolution in the use of AC and the meteorological conditions, especially the temperature, have a large geographical variability, REC should be studied locally. To project the French REC in a warmer climate at a fine spatial scale, a linear thermosensitivity model fitted by annual observed electricity consumption data and historical temperature is applied at the smallest French geographic census unit named Ilots Regreoupés pour l'Information Statistical (IRIS), which divides the territory into meshes of about 2000 inhabitants per unit cell. Once the current electricity sensitivity is fitted for each IRIS, the future REC is computed by applying the model to temperature projections under climate change scenario RCP8.5 up until 2100 based on 5 CORDEX climate simulations. At the same time, extreme cases of two non-climatic factors related to the use of Air-Conditioning (AC, the AC adoption rate and electricity sensitivity in cooling conditions) are also studied for future cooling needs. If only the temperature evolves, the results show that the future REC should decline with decreasing heating needs in most cells but with spatial variability and an increase in the REC for some cells. Results also show a larger disparity within administrative regions containing between a few hundred and a few thousand IRIS than between administrative regions, which justifies that future REC studies based on climate projections should be studied locally. Including AC scenarios may modify the REC negative trend in more parts of France: the REC is expected to increase in the South-East. Such an increase in electricity demand due to AC usage may have detrimental effects, not only because the total REC may increase by 4\% by 2040 and even 45\% until 2100 under the most extreme AC scenario and should thus emit more greenhouse gas, but also because the use of AC is expected to increase outdoor temperature and the heat island effect. Further studies need to focus on alternative solutions to improve inhabitants' comfort during heat waves, such as large-scale urban greening and white-coated buildings, to reduce potential AC uses, especially for the regions that may face an increase in REC. Also, the thermal performance of the building, as well as the energy efficiency of AC appliances, need to be improved in those regions. Our study can help quantify the range of improvement needed to maintain at least energy demand for cooling unchanged in a warmer climate.

How to cite: Tao, Q., Naveau, M., Tantet, A., Badosa, J., and Drobinski, P.: Future residential electricity consumption under climate change in France: application of a fine-granularity thermosensitivity model., EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-15003, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-15003, 2023.

11:15–12:30