CR6.1 | Risks from a changing cryosphere
EDI
Risks from a changing cryosphere
Co-organized by CL3.2/GM7/NH10, co-sponsored by IACS and IPA
Convener: Christian Huggel | Co-conveners: Michael Krautblatter, Miriam Jackson, Matthew Westoby
Orals
| Thu, 27 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST)
 
Room L3
Posters on site
| Attendance Thu, 27 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST)
 
Hall X5
Posters virtual
| Attendance Thu, 27 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST)
 
vHall CR/OS
Orals |
Thu, 16:15
Thu, 14:00
Thu, 14:00
The global cryosphere with all its components is strongly impacted by climate change and has been undergoing significant changes over the past decades. Glaciers are shrinking and thinning. Snow cover and duration is reduced, and permafrost, in both Arctic and mountain environments, is thawing. Changes in sea ice cover and characteristics have attracted widespread attention, and changes in ice sheets are monitored with care and concern. Risks associated with one or several of these cryosphere components have been present throughout history. However, with ongoing climate change, we expect changes in the magnitude and frequency of hazards with profound implications for risks, especially when these interact with other aspects relating to context vulnerability, exposure, and other processes of biophysical and/or socioeconomic drivers of change. New or growing glacier lakes pose a threat to downstream communities through the potential for sudden drainage. Thawing permafrost can destabilize mountain slopes, and eventually result in large landslide or destructive rock and ice avalanches. An accelerated rate of permafrost degradation in low-land areas poses risk to existing and planned infrastructure and raises concerns about large-scale emission of greenhouse gases currently trapped in Arctic permafrost. Decreased summertime sea ice extent may produce both risks and opportunities in terms of large-scale climate feedbacks and alterations, coastal vulnerability, and new access to transport routes and natural resources. Furthermore, rapid acceleration of outlet glacier ice discharge and collapse of ice sheets is of major concern for sea level change. This session invites contributions across all cryosphere components that address risks associated with observed or projected physical processes. Contributions considering more than one cryosphere component (e.g. glaciers and permafrost) are particularly encouraged, as well as contributions on cascading processes and interconnected risks. Contributions can consider hazards and risks related to changes in the past, present or future. Furthermore, Contributions may consider one or several components of risks (i.e. natural hazards, exposure, vulnerability) as long as conceptual clarity is ensured. Furthermore, cases that explore diverse experiences with inter- and transdisciplinary research, that sought to address these risks with communities through adaptation and resilience building, are also be considered.

Orals: Thu, 27 Apr | Room L3

Chairpersons: Christian Huggel, Michael Krautblatter
16:15–16:20
16:20–16:30
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EGU23-2549
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ECS
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Virtual presentation
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Dongfeng Li, Xixi Lu, Desmond Walling, Ting Zhang, Jakob Steiner, Robert Wasson, Harrison Stephan, Santosh Nepal, Yong Nie, Walter Immerzeel, Dan Shugar, Michèle Koppes, Stuart Lane, and Tobias Bolch

Global warming-induced melting and thawing of the cryosphere are rapidly changing hydrogeomorphic processes and cryospheric hazards in high mountain areas worldwide. These processes and hazards include glacial retreat and collapses, permafrost thaw and associated landslides, rock-ice avalanches, debris flows, and outburst floods from glacier lakes and landslide-dammed lakes. The changing slope instability and extreme flood have accelerated landscape erosion and increased fluvial sediment loads. For example, the rivers in High Mountain Asia are becoming muddier due to increased suspended particulate matters from melting glaciers and thawing permafrost, likely degrading water quality as fine-grained sediment are easily bonded with organic carbon, phosphorus and most heavy metals (e.g., mercury, chromium, arsenic and lead). Importantly, numerous hydropower dams and reservoirs are under construction or planning in high-mountain areas worldwide such as in the Himalaya and Andes. The increasing amounts of mobilized sediment can fill up reservoirs, cause dam failure, and degrade power turbines, threatening the short-term safety and longer-term sustainability of these hydropower systems.

In the future, we recommend forward-looking design and maintenance solutions that can help transition towards climate change-resilient high-quality water supply and hydropower systems in high-mountain areas. The specific suggestions include: (i) monitor the climate, glaciers and permafrost, glacial lakes, unstable slopes, discharge and sediment yields to better understand the cascading links between climate change, glacier retreat and hazards; (ii) predict future fluvial sediment loads, water quality and reservoir sedimentation in a changing climate and develop sustainable sediment management solutions; (iii) establish real-time early warning systems and enhance social awareness and drills, especially for in-construction dams to minimize human and infrastructure losses; (iv) enhance transboundary cooperation by establishing data-sharing schemes and adopting joint-operation strategies to better cope with hazards and optimise sediment flushing; and (v) promote the inclusion of indigenous and local knowledge in policy, governance, and management for water quality assessment and dam and reservoir construction.

The major results of this study have been published online: Li, D., Lu, X., Walling, D. E., Zhang, T., Steiner, J. F., Wasson, R. J., ... & Bolch, T. (2022). High Mountain Asia hydropower systems threatened by climate-driven landscape instability. Nature Geoscience15(7), 520-530. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-022-00953-y

How to cite: Li, D., Lu, X., Walling, D., Zhang, T., Steiner, J., Wasson, R., Stephan, H., Nepal, S., Nie, Y., Immerzeel, W., Shugar, D., Koppes, M., Lane, S., and Bolch, T.: Increasing cryospheric hazards and sediment supply threaten water quality and hydropower systems in high mountain areas, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-2549, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-2549, 2023.

16:30–16:40
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EGU23-1089
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On-site presentation
Sara Savi, Francesco Comiti, and Manfred Strecker

Glacial and proglacial zones of high-mountain regions are among the areas most affected by the ongoing climate warming. Rising temperatures accelerate glacial retreat and the degradation of permafrost, with a consequent increase of instability of steep rock walls, moraines, and slopes. This may increase sediment production that could either contribute to the debris cover of the retreating glaciers, or to an increase in the amount of sediment being transported through the proglacial zone and the more distant fluvial system. The contribution of a proglacial area to the total amount of sediment that exits a basin, however, depends on many factors and it is not yet clear, if sediment supply from such areas will continue to increase or decrease in future. Filling this knowledge-gap is crucial to be able to predict the transport capacity of glacial-fed fluvial systems, especially in relation to possible related hydrogeological hazards.

By analyzing aerial photographs and high-resolution digital surface models from a proglacial area in the Eastern Italian Alps, we demonstrate that these sources of sediment are intimately coupled with the position of the glacier through time; this also applies to the newly formed channel reaches that have evolved following glacial retreat. It follows that sediment sources can be “switched on” or “switched off” in relative short time periods, which are primarily influenced by climate-driven environmental change. Such a pulsed sediment production thus generates waves of sediment that may be entrained by the fluvial system depending on water availability and transport capacity. As such, a detailed and robust forecast of sediment yield for future scenarios may be possible if the spatial and environmental changes associated with glacier retreat and newly formed channel network are monitored and assessed.

How to cite: Savi, S., Comiti, F., and Strecker, M.: Glacial hot spots for sediment supply during global warming: a case study from the Eastern Italian Alps, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-1089, 2023.

16:40–16:50
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EGU23-6052
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
Andreas Kääb and Luc Girod

Following the 130 106 m3 detachment of the Sedongpu Glacier (south-eastern Tibet) in 2018, the Sedongpu valley underwent drastic and rapid large-volume landscape changes. Between 2018 and 2022, and in particular during summer 2021, an enormous volume of in total ~335 106 m3 was eroded from the former glacier bed, forming a new canyon of up to 300 m depth, 1 km width and almost 4 km length. The mass was transported into the Yarlung Tsangpo (Brahmaputra) River and further. Several rock-ice avalanches of in total ~150 106 m3 added to the total rock, sediment and ice volume of over 0.6 km3 that were exported from the basin since around 2017. The recent events at Sedongpu Glacier represent a rapid and irreversible process of landscape transformation from a sediment-filled glacier valley to a glacier-free one with a deeply incised canyon, impressively confirming that glaciers are able to protect their soft beds against massive erosion. Once uncovered, the erosion potential of soft glacier beds is here demonstrated to be possibly enormous for some glaciers in terms of volumes and rates. Such erosion could be particularly extreme for fine-grained subglacial sediments and for elevated glacier beds where large amounts of subglacial sediments are stored. The 2018–2022 landscape development at Sedongpu represents an extreme example of rapid paraglacial slope response highlighting extreme glacier erosion potentials and related hazards from debris flows and impacts on rivers. Such consequences of climate change in glacierized mountains have so far not been considered at this magnitude.

How to cite: Kääb, A. and Girod, L.: Rapid and massive 335 million m3 glacier bed erosion after detachment of the Sedongpu Glacier (Tibet), EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-6052, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-6052, 2023.

16:50–17:00
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EGU23-8183
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Maëva Cathala, Florence Magnin, Ludovic Ravanel, Dorren Luuk, Nicolas Zuanon, Frédéric Berger, Franck Bourrier, and Deline Philip

Permafrost-affected rockwalls are increasingly impacted by the effects of climate change and rising air temperature leading to rock slope failures. These events pose a threat for human lives and infrastructure, which underlines the need of better knowledge about their triggering mechanism and propagation.  The aim of this study was to propose a mapping approach of susceptible release areas of rock slope failures and resulting runout distances at a regional scale. This information helps identifying hotspots for subsequent hazard assessment.

To do so, we used an inventory of 1389 rock slope failures (volume > 102 m3)recorded in the Mont-Blanc massif from 2007 to 2019 and determined the topographical and permafrost conditions that are most prone to their triggering using a digital terrain model and a permafrost map. These conditions are used in a multi-criteria GIS approach to identify potential unstable slopes at the French Alps scale. Then, the potential release area map is used as input to map the runout of potential events, using a propagation model based on a normalised area dependant energy line principle. The resulting maps of release and propagation areas will be used to point out human assets (mountaineering routes, high mountain infrastructure, tourism areas) and lakes (that can provoke cascading hazards) which could be impacted by rock slope failure hazards.

This work is a first step to identify hot spots for a regional hazard assessment where more detailed analyses will be required to evaluate potential risks at a local scale.

How to cite: Cathala, M., Magnin, F., Ravanel, L., Luuk, D., Zuanon, N., Berger, F., Bourrier, F., and Philip, D.: Mapping release and propagation areas of permafrost-related rock slope failures to identify hot spots for hazard assessment; French Alps, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-8183, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-8183, 2023.

17:00–17:10
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EGU23-12531
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On-site presentation
Jarkko Okkonen, Nikita Afonin, Emma-Riikka Kokko, Elena Kozlovskaya, Kari Moisio, and Roseanna Neupauer

Global warming is affecting the Arctic more significantly as it is warming faster than other places on Earth. The consequences for Arctic as well as sub-Arctic environment are not well understood. Observations in the past decades and climate change impact analysis predicts clear changes in snow cover and snow melt but consequences to frozen soil and related phenomena such as frost quakes are unclear. Frost quakes are non-tectonic seismic events that occur when freezing of water in saturated soils or rocks results in sudden release of seismic energy. Compared to traditional tectonic earthquakes in seismology, frost quakes are much less studied, as they usually occur at random, or less predictable, rarely instrumented locations. Reports and news of frost quakes, resulting in mechanical damage to the pavements, roads and buildings have been received recently from different locations in Finland, Canada and USA and connections between air temperature and frost quakes have been found. The conceptual model of frost quakes is well known but a methodology to predict the occurrence of frost quakes have been missing. In our study, we present a methodology to investigate the connection between thermal stress and frost quakes. Thermal stress is a function of temperature, which can be measured or calculated. We used a hydrological model to calculate snow depth, snow melt rate and soil temperature at different depths in soil. We show that rapid decrease in temperature can cause a thermal stress that is higher than fracture toughness and strength of the soil‐ice mixture. A swarm of frost quakes occurred on 6 January 2016, in in the city of Oulu in Central Finland (sub-Arctic environment). Some of the frost quakes created ruptures in soil, building foundations, and roads. We show that origin of frost quakes was related to rapid decrease in air temperature from -12 °C to –29 °C that created thermal stress in frozen soil and roads which could not withstand the stress.

How to cite: Okkonen, J., Afonin, N., Kokko, E.-R., Kozlovskaya, E., Moisio, K., and Neupauer, R.: Connection between thermal stress and frost quakes, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-12531, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-12531, 2023.

17:10–17:20
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EGU23-15703
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
Scott McCoy, Jonathan Jacquet, Daniel McGrath, and Sajid Ghuffar

When glacial dams fail catastrophically, the ensuing glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) can cause devastating impacts to downstream environments and infrastructure. Large-impact GLOFs imprint distinct geomorphic features in the landscape that can remain diagnostic for hundreds of years, particularly for GLOFs sourced from moraine-dammed lakes. In this work, we used multi-temporal very-high-resolution-satellite imagery to systematically map the occurrence of impactful GLOFs from moraine-dammed lakes along the Himalayan arc between the Indus and the Salween rivers. Additionally, we binned mapped events by approximate date of occurrence to quantify changes in GLOF frequency through time. This new data set adds over 200 newly mapped GLOFs from ~200 lakes to the 108 events documented in published compilations. We find notable spatial heterogeneity in GLOF hazard along the Himalayan arc. Furthermore, we find that GLOF frequency from moraine-dammed lakes in the last 20 years is markedly lower than earlier time periods from 1970-2000 or from the end of the Little Ice Age to 1970. This decrease in GLOF frequency in recent time is despite continued growth of glacial lakes, likely increases in the frequency of mass movements that commonly trigger GLOFs from moraine-dammed lakes, and mapping bias that likely underestimates GLOF occurrence from earlier time periods.

How to cite: McCoy, S., Jacquet, J., McGrath, D., and Ghuffar, S.: Mapping Himalayan glacial lake outburst flood hazard through time and space, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-15703, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-15703, 2023.

17:20–17:30
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EGU23-13137
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On-site presentation
Susanne Schmidt, Mohd Soheb, and Marcus Nüsser

Cryosphere-related hazards are a growing but largely neglected threat for rural settlements, agrarian land use and local livelihoods in the cold-arid Trans-Himalayan region of Ladakh. Despite the growing number of studies on cryosphere-related hazards across High Mountain Asia and other glacierized mountain regions, the occurrence, frequency and magnitude of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are almost entirely overlooked for the region of Ladakh. Due to the small size and high elevational location of glaciers above 5200 m a.s.l. also the glacial lakes are of small size and some of them are almost permanently ice-covered. In the recent past several GLOF events occurred which destroyed infrastructure and agricultural area. It becomes obvious that even these small glacial lakes might be a permanent threat for local livelihoods and socioeconomic development. This is even more problematic as the number and size of lakes has significantly increased over the past decades. Many of these lakes are dammed by ice-cored moraines which tend to become instable due to climate warming. A comprehensive inventory of glacial lakes for the entire Trans-Himalayan region of Ladakh was carried out. This includes several almost permanently ice-covered high altitude lakes, which have to be detected by visual image interpretation. Changes in the extent and number of glacial lakes have been quantified for the years 1969, 1993, 2000/02 and 2018 in order to assess the potential threat of future GLOFs in the region. A total of 192 glacial lakes cover an area of 5.93 ± 0.70 km2 with an estimated water volume of about 61.11 ± 8.5 million m3, including 127 proglacial (PG) and 56 lakes located on recent moraines (RM) were mapped in 2018. The change detection analyses also indicated the disappearance of 22 glacial lakes (decrease by more than 90%) between 1969 and 2018. The lake development of selected former reported GLOF events were analysed in detail to reconstruct lake level changes which possibly indicate earlier GLOF events. Based on high temporal resolution remote sensing data, a sophisticated monitoring concept needs to be realized to indicate the development of short-lived lakes on glaciers or on debris landforms with buried ice or fast glacial lake growth.

How to cite: Schmidt, S., Soheb, M., and Nüsser, M.: Emerging threats: Cryosphere-related hazards in the Trans-Himalaya of Ladakh, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-13137, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-13137, 2023.

17:30–17:40
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EGU23-10799
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Brianna Rick, Daniel McGrath, Scott McCoy, and William Armstrong

As ice thins and retreats due to climate change, glacial lakes can form and grow. Rapid lake drainage can produce devastating outburst floods leading many to propose that hazards from glacial lakes are increasing. Outburst flood compilations do show an increase in the number of events documented over time, however, recent studies attribute such trends to observational bias. This leaves large uncertainty about current and future glacial-lake hazards. Here, we focus on ice-dammed lake drainages in Alaska, as a third of documented events globally occurred in this region. Using multitemporal satellite imagery (Landsat and Sentinel-2), we documented 1150 drainages from 106 lakes over 1985–2020. Accounting for the increase in satellite imagery availability over time, we find no temporal trend in drainage frequency. Furthermore, 70% of lakes decreased in estimated volume and peak discharge since the 1960s, and nearly a third of lakes released earlier through time. These results suggest a decrease in overall regional flood hazard from ice-dammed lakes and motivates an unbiased look at other regions.

How to cite: Rick, B., McGrath, D., McCoy, S., and Armstrong, W.: Regional decrease in hazards from ice-dammed lakes in Alaska since the 1960s, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-10799, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-10799, 2023.

17:40–17:50
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EGU23-14598
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Greta H. Wells, Þorsteinn Sæmundsson, Snævarr Guðmundsson, Finnur Pálsson, Eyjólfur Magnússon, Reginald L. Hermanns, and Guðfinna Aðalgeirsdóttir

Arctic regions are warming at more than double the global average rate with significant impacts on glaciers and hydrologic systems. Iceland is on the front line of this rapid climate change, with a predicted loss of ~20% of its current ice cap volume by 2100. Much of this meltwater is stored in proglacial lakes at outlet glaciers, which are at risk of draining in glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Most contemporary outburst floods in Iceland have been triggered by subglacial eruptions and geothermal activity; however, GLOFs resulting from mass movement events into lakes are an emerging—yet understudied—hazard. Many of Iceland’s proglacial lakes form in overdeepened basins, storing large volumes of meltwater; expanding lake extent creates more surface area for mass movements to enter; and retreating glaciers remove support from valley walls, increasing rockfall and landslide risk. Several large rockfalls have fallen onto glaciers in the past decades; however, these events may enter lakes as glacier retreat progresses and lakes expand.

We investigate this emerging hazard by predicting proglacial lake evolution and assessing GLOF risk under a future warming climate at three sites in south Iceland. This presentation focuses on the proglacial lake at Fjallsjökull, an outlet glacier of the Vatnajökull ice cap. We present lake volume changes since 1980, derived from bathymetric surveys and mapped lake surface areas. We then estimate future lake volume and extent changes from the present until 2100 based on: 1) local topography derived from bathymetric mapping, ArcticDEM, and subglacial topography from radio-echo sounding surveys; and 2) projected glacier retreat under different climate warming scenarios. Next, we identify potential hazards from mass movement events entering the lake at its current and future extents based on field mapping and remote sensing imagery. Finally, we discuss implications of a glacial outburst flood on downstream communities, infrastructure, and tourism, laying the foundation for future work on hazard assessment and flood modeling. This site is an excellent pilot study for this emerging hazard in Iceland and has significant potential for application to other Icelandic and Arctic glacial lakes.

How to cite: Wells, G. H., Sæmundsson, Þ., Guðmundsson, S., Pálsson, F., Magnússon, E., Hermanns, R. L., and Aðalgeirsdóttir, G.: Future proglacial lake evolution and outburst flood hazard in south Iceland, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-14598, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-14598, 2023.

17:50–18:00
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EGU23-3046
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Taihua Wang and Dawen Yang

Rivers originating from the Tibetan Plateau (TP) provide water to more than one billion people living downstream. Almost 40% of the TP is currently underlain by permafrost, which serves as both an ice reserve and a flow barrier and is expected to degrade drastically in a warming climate. The hydrological impacts of permafrost thaw across the TP, however, remain poorly understood. Here we quantify the permafrost change on the TP over 1980-2100 and evaluate its hydrological impacts using a physically-based cryospheric-hydrological model. Our results indicate widespread permafrost thaw and prominent ground ice losses under warming. The declining ground ice reserve provides locally important but unsustainable meltwater runoff. In addition, the lowering of the permafrost table and removal of permafrost as a flow barrier would enhance infiltration and raise subsurface storage capacity. The diminished water supply from ground ice melt and enhanced subsurface storage capacity could jointly reduce annual runoff and exacerbate the risk of regional water shortage when facing future droughts. Our findings highlight the important role of permafrost thaw in future water resources management and drought risk assessment across the TP.

How to cite: Wang, T. and Yang, D.: Hydrological implications of pervasive permafrost thaw across the Tibetan Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-3046, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-3046, 2023.

Posters on site: Thu, 27 Apr, 14:00–15:45 | Hall X5

Chairpersons: Michael Krautblatter, Christian Huggel
X5.264
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EGU23-8539
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ECS
Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Glacier Lakes in the Hindukush Region of Afghanistan (HKA)
(withdrawn)
Fayezurahman Azizi and Stuart Lane
X5.265
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EGU23-13286
Gulomjon Umirzakov, Eleonora Semakova, Dilmurad Junsaliev, Timur Sabitov, Halimjon Mamirov, and Alessandro Cicoira

Glacier lakes outburst floods (GLOFs) study in the Central Asian region is a very important task in terms of global warming and glacier shrinking. It is expected that ongoing climate changes will lead to an increase in the magnitude and frequency of glacial hazards with profound implications for risks. The appearance and expansion of naturally-dammed lakes in the mountain regions of Uzbekistan poses a threat to downstream communities through the potential for sudden drainage.

In this study, we considered a possible flood from failures of natural dams of the two well-known Ikhnach lakes located in the Pskem River basin at an altitude of 2400 m. We simulated the GLOF using the RAMMS: DebrisFlow software. In our scenario the potential debris flow from the Ikhnach Lakes can reach a constructed dam of the Pskem new reservoir located at the altitude of 1020 m. The total length of the analyzed flow path is 34 km. It is known that accurate and up-to-date digital elevation models (DEMs) are important tools for studying mountain hazards. We used such global DEMs as input as ALOS PALSAR, and TanDEM-X DEMs. According to the simulation results of possible floods from the Ikhnach lakes in the Debris Flow module of the software, the following results were obtained: (i) the time of the flood to reach the hydropower station (HPP) area - 14800±700 sec ~ 4.11 hours; (ii) maximum water discharge of flood water at the HPP area – 410±20 m3 s-1; (iii) height of the flood in the HPP area - 1.2 m.

The obtained results show that there is no potential disastrous effect of the possible flood from the lakes to the residential area as the lowest settlement along the river bed is located considerably higher than flood risk area. However, possible floods in the lakes potentially can reach and have an effect on day to day dam operation of newly constructed Pskem HPP and its engineering infrastructures. Therefore, flood parameters modeled in the RAMMS can be useful information for designing flood damage prevention structures and reservoir operation.

How to cite: Umirzakov, G., Semakova, E., Junsaliev, D., Sabitov, T., Mamirov, H., and Cicoira, A.: Hazard assessment of the potential outburst flood of the Ikhnach Lakes, Uzbekistan, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-13286, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-13286, 2023.

X5.266
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EGU23-13819
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ECS
Gregor Ortner, Adrien Michel, Matthias B.A. Spieler, Chahan M. Kropf, Marc Christen, Yves Bühler, Michael Bründl, and David N. Bresch

The effect of climate change on snow avalanches is widely unknown. 
Various studies indicate that a rise of temperature  and extreme precipitation events will influence the release and the flow regime of snow avalanches. To compare the consequences of these potential changes on snow avalanche hazard and risk with the current situation, we have developed a framework to model avalanche risk at a regional scale. In a first step, we combined an algorithm to delineate potential release areas using a high-resolution terrain model and a forest layer and modeled three hazard scenarios for the current climate situation in a region in central Switzerland. The runout modelling was carried out with the RAMMS::LSHIM Large Scale Hazard Indication Mapping algorithm implemented in the recently released high parameterised version RAMMS::Extended.

For modelling climate change effects on snowfall intensity and snow pack temperature, we used down-scaled data from the Swiss climate change scenarios CH2018 as input for the snow- and surface model "SNOWPACK''. The results of six different model chains within the RCP8.5 emission scenario and a hundred year (from year 2000 to 2100) long data set provided the input to simulate the course of over 600 future winters. For these hypothetical  future winters, we applied extreme value statistics to determine the future changes of the three-day maxima of snowfall. This maxima were used to derive the potential future avalanche fracture depth. We used the output of SNOWPACK for various snow layers to take the effect of changing snow temperatures on the flow regime into account. Furthermore, we considered the rise of the zero degree line to restrict potential future avalanche release zones.

The so-derived changing avalanche hazard disposition maps were used as input for the probabilistic, Python-based risk assessment platform CLIMADA to quantitatively assess the risk to buildings. The resulting maps depict the impacts of climate change on snow avalanche risk by highlighting areas where adaptation measures might be needed and thereby provide a basis for risk appraisal options and risk management strategies considering climate change.

 

How to cite: Ortner, G., Michel, A., Spieler, M. B. A., Kropf, C. M., Christen, M., Bühler, Y., Bründl, M., and Bresch, D. N.: Climate change impacts on large scale avalanche risk in mountainous regions, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-13819, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-13819, 2023.

X5.267
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EGU23-15227
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ECS
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Simon Seelig, Thomas Wagner, Karl Krainer, Michael Avian, Marc Olefs, Klaus Haslinger, and Gerfried Winkler

A cascading process including thermokarst lake outburst, debris flow initiation, and river blockage, hit a high mountain valley in the Austrian Alps during summer 2019. The rapid development of thermokarst features on an active rock glacier, including a lake with a water volume of approximately 166,000 m³ as well as a 350 m long drainage channel, most likely triggered the failure of ice-cemented debris within its front, with subsequent mobilization of roughly 50,000 m³ of sediment. This study explores the drivers of thermokarst evolution by tracking the lake development using satellite imagery and modeling its energy budget. We employ a simple balance model, assuming that the atmospheric energy input was efficiently transferred to the frozen rock glacier core through convection of lake water. This process provided sufficient melting energy to establish the thermokarst channel draining the lake within several hours. Our results highlight the need to account for thermokarst processes in hazard assessment studies involving permafrost-affected terrain.

How to cite: Seelig, S., Wagner, T., Krainer, K., Avian, M., Olefs, M., Haslinger, K., and Winkler, G.: Thermokarst processes as triggers of debris flows: A case study at Hüttekar Rock Glacier (Austrian Alps), EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-15227, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-15227, 2023.

X5.268
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EGU23-1630
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ECS
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Riccardo Scandroglio, Samuel Weber, Till Rehm, and Michael Krautblatter

Here we present the first multi-annual study in periglacial environments quantifying and characterizing water accumulation in bedrock joints with the help of lysimeters, weather data, snowmelt modeling and gravimetric monitoring.

Continuous measurements allow to detect the timing and to estimate the quantity of water accumulations. These can easily generate significant hydrostatic pressures in sealed clefts and are one of the most important but less understood contributors to slope destabilization. Due to the recent increase of temperatures and the consequent deepening of active layers, it is expected that the influence of water will increase and potentially lead to bigger instabilities, dangerous for people and expensive for infrastructures.

Measurements have been conducted at Mount Zugspitze (Germany/Austria, 2962 m a.s.l.). Hourly cleft water discharge was recorded in a tunnel by two lysimeters-like loggers, high frequency weather data from the summit were provided by the German Meteorological Service and snow measurements from the plateau were obtained from the Bavarian Avalanche Service. Monthly measurements with a relative spring gravimeter Scintrex CG-5 were conducted in the tunnel together with the TUM Institute of Astronomical and Physical Geodesy to monitor water mass changes. Additionally, our temperature loggers and electrical resistivity tomographies recorded permafrost degradation, while a geological mapping provided a detailed cleft structure of the location.

Water flowing in the tunnel comes predominantly from clefts as the Wetterstein limestone exhibits very low porosity and permeability. Over the complete time of investigation, two repeating phases can be clearly distinguished. (i) Snowmelt from April to July provides the highest discharge rates, up to 800 l/d. These measures are well in agreement with the hourly melting rates obtained by the model Snowpack (SLF). Saturation of bedrock and clefts is at its maximum during this period and temperatures are constantly around 0°C, so that water-ice processes are expected to dominate slope stability. (ii) Rainfall events, normally present only from June to September, deliver smaller quantities of water since they mainly have high intensity but short duration. Nevertheless, due to a clear separation between events, it is possible to detect water flow continuing several days after the end of the rainfall, a clear evidence of water accumulation.

Although direct measure of hydrostatic pressures in single clefts remains an open challenge, this benchmark study provides measures on fluid flow and quantitative estimate on water accumulation leading to hydrostatic pressure in bedrock permafrost. Improving the knowledge of slope internal thermal-hydrological dynamics in periglacial environments can help understanding disastrous slope failures.

How to cite: Scandroglio, R., Weber, S., Rehm, T., and Krautblatter, M.: Quantification of water flow in permafrost rock walls, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-1630, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-1630, 2023.

X5.269
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EGU23-5464
Laurent Baillet, Daniela Teodor, Antoine Guillemot, Sylvain Faller, Eric Larose, and Stephane Garambois

Subglacial cavities may trap a considerable quantity of liquid water, causing devastating outburst floods in densely populated mountain areas. Dedicated studies aimed at identifying such intraglacial cavities at an early stage of their formation (1-2) to prevent and mitigate potential subsequent hazards. Both active and passive geophysical methods are employed for the glacier-bedrock interface and intra-glacial characterization e.g., (3), including Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR), refraction seismic, borehole measurements, and surface nuclear magnetic resonance (SNMR). 

Ambient seismic noise can be collected by light surveys at a relatively moderate cost, and allows to access some mechanical properties of the glacier, including the detection and localization of ice cavities. The horizontal-to-vertical-spectral ratio (HVSR) technique is highly sensitive to impedance contrasts at interfaces, especially the ice/bedrock interface, thus allowing to estimate the glacier thickness (but with limited resolution compared to GPR).

In contrast to the classical Horizontal to Vertical Spectral Ratio (HVSR), Saenger et al. (4) proposed analyzing the (opposite) V/H spectral ratio (VHSR) for spectral anomalies characterization. Specifically, a peak in the VHSR indicates a low impedance volume beneath the surface. As a simple picture, we can refer to the “bridge” vibrating mode, where the vertical displacement in the middle of the bridge largely dominates other components of the movement.  Antunes et al. (5) furthermore noticed that the VHSR gives information about seismic energy anomalies generated by fluids in reservoirs since the wavefield is polarized mainly in the vertical direction.

In this work, we apply the HVSR and VHSR techniques to characterize the Tête Rousse glacier (Mont Blanc area, French Alps) and a subglacial water-filled cavity. We analyze the HVSR and VHSR results from 60 temporary dense seismic array installed on the glacier for 15 days (May 2022). Mapping the VHSR over the free surface evidences areas where the main cavity (or secondary cavities) is (are) expected. We perform an elastic modal analysis based on numerical simulations obtained with Comsol Multiphysics finite element numerical scheme to reproduce the observed field data and confirm some geometrical and physical features of the cavity(ties).

References:

  • (1) Haeberli, W. et al: Prevention of outburst floods from periglacial lakes at Grubengletscher, Valais, Swiss Alps. Glaciol., 47 (156), 111–122 (2001).
  • (2) Vincent, C. et al : Origin of the outburst flood from Glacier de Tête Rousse in 1892 (Mont Blanc area, France), Journal of Glaciology, 56 (198), pp 688–698 (2010).
  • (3) Petrenko, V. F, and R.W. Whitworth: Physics of ice. Oxford University Press, New York, 373 (2002).
  • (4) Saenger, E-H. et al: A passive seismic survey over a gas field: Analysis of low-frequency anomalies, Geophysics, 74 (2), O29–O40 (2009).
  • (5) Antunes V. et al: Insights into the dynamics of the Nirano Mud Volcano through seismic characterization of drumbeat signals and V/H analysis. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 431 (2022).

How to cite: Baillet, L., Teodor, D., Guillemot, A., Faller, S., Larose, E., and Garambois, S.: Detection and localization of ice cavitiy using ambient seismic noise, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-5464, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-5464, 2023.

Posters virtual: Thu, 27 Apr, 14:00–15:45 | vHall CR/OS

Chairpersons: Dongfeng Li, Matthew Westoby, Miriam Jackson
vCO.4
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EGU23-11207
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ECS
Thomas Y. Chen

As glacial melting and permafrost melting increase in intensity, regions with glaciers experience higher rates of flooding, which can cause immense economic loss and hundreds of lives lost in glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). By training a convolutional neural network (CNN) for this problem on multitemporal satellite imagery, we propose enabling deployable technologies that predict GLOF events and impacts on surrounding areas. In particular, we collect high-resolution satellite imagery data from previous GLOFs around the world, such as in Iceland, Alaska (United States), Pakistan, and Tibet, utilizing repositories provided by ESA and NASA. We curate a dataset based on paired images (pre- and post-GLOF). In this way, we can train the CNN on the change detected between these two instances, which can further aid in predictions in the form of an output from 0 to 10 indicating the severity of damage caused. However, because machine learning algorithms require a large quantity of data, we must also employ transfer learning. We propose a Markov logic network framework to achieve this, incorporating data from events that were not necessarily GLOFs but included glacial movement and/or flooding. When deployed, models like the one we propose can allow for both the monitoring of GLOFs in action as well as predict GLOFs in the near future by assessing changes using data collected from satellites in real time. 

How to cite: Chen, T. Y.: Monitoring GLOFs via deep learning-based remote sensing and transfer learning, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-11207, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-11207, 2023.