Prediction of Adverse effects of Geomagnetic storms and Energetic Radiation (PAGER) – project conclusion

The European Union's Horizon 2020 Prediction of Adverse effects of Geomagnetic storms and Energetic Radiation (PAGER) project was successfully concluded in 2023. This project provides real-time space weather forecast initiated from the solar observations as well as predictions of radiation in space and its effects on satellite infrastructure. Real-time predictions of particle radiation and cold plasma density allow for evaluation of surface charging and deep dielectric charging. The project provides a 1-2-day probabilistic and data assimilative forecast of ring current and radiation belt environments, which allows satellite operators to respond to predictions that present a significant threat. As a backbone of the project, we use the state-of-the-art codes that currently exist and adapt existing codes to perform ensemble simulations and uncertainty quantifications. Within PAGER, a number of innovative tools was obtained, including data assimilation and uncertainty quantification, new models of near-Earth electromagnetic wave environment, ensemble predictions of solar wind parameters at L1, and data-driven forecast of the geomangetic Kp index and plasma density. In this presentation, we show the overview of the outcomes and the products obtained within the project. The developed codes may be used in the future for realistic modelling of extreme space weather events.