EGU24-10129, updated on 08 Mar 2024
EGU General Assembly 2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Subseasonal to seasonal forecasts using Masked Autoencoders

Jannik Thümmel, Jakob Schlör, Felix Strnad, and Bedartha Goswami
Jannik Thümmel et al.
  • University of Tübingen, Germany (

Subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) weather forecasts play an important role as a decision making tool in several sectors of modern society. However, the time scale on which these forecasts are skillful is strongly dependent on atmospheric and oceanic background conditions. While deep learning-based weather prediction models have shown impressive results in the short- to medium range, S2S forecasts from such models are currently limited, partly due to fewer available training data and larger fluctuations in predictability. In order to develop more reliable S2S predictions we leverage Masked Autoencoders, a state-of-the-art deep learning framework, to extract large-scale representations of tropical precipitation and sea-surface temperature data.  We show that the learned representations are highly predictive for the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and can thus serve as a foundation for identifying windows of opportunity and generating skillful S2S forecasts.

How to cite: Thümmel, J., Schlör, J., Strnad, F., and Goswami, B.: Subseasonal to seasonal forecasts using Masked Autoencoders, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-10129,, 2024.