An assessment of global-scale drivers of climate disaster impacts and risk

The complex interplay between environmental and anthropogenic factors across the globe results in differing impacts of climate and weather related disasters. Communities living in deprived socioeconomic conditions are usually subjected to severe impacts, as they are more vulnerable to disasters. However, in a world of rapid natural and anthropogenic change, this is not the only cause behind amplified risks and impacts. The aim of this study is to identify the pivotal global-scale factors that make a significant contribution to the impact severity of climate disasters.

Using an expansive dataset with disaster impact records, complemented with socioeconomic indicators and climate variables from >6000 events in >150 countries, our work is a global-scale investigation of the roles of hazard severity, exposure, and vulnerability influencing the impacts and risk of climate disasters. We use a spatio-temporal stratified approach to define hazard severity, exposure, and vulnerability with relevant variables at the local, regional and global levels. Then, we determine the main factors contributing to impact severity across regions and disaster types using a robust machine learning pipeline.

This study illustrates the importance of considering comprehensive aspects of risk in order to build resilient societies to climate extremes. Our research contributes to advancing scientific understanding of the drivers of climate disaster impacts, with the aim of developing more effective policies. It highlights the importance of integrating diverse data sources and advanced analytical methods to better anticipate, prepare for, and respond to the multifaceted challenges posed by climate disasters in a changing climate.