Resolving the interannual to multi-decadal variability in ocean heat content, a simulation study of current and future satellite gravity missions

Ocean Heat Content (OHC) is an essential indicator of Earth’s climate state. Climate change is driven by the disequilibrium of Earth’s radiation budget. This abundant energy in the system is the Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI), which is challenging to measure globally. About 90% of EEI is accumulated in the oceans, resulting in an increase in ocean heat content. Therefore, OHC is a suitable proxy for EEI and can be measured globally using a combination of geodetic satellite techniques. By combining satellite altimetry and satellite gravimetry, it is possible to measure the change in global ocean heat content over the mission’s lifetime. While the altimeter record covers several decades, satellite gravity missions have been observing global mass transports for two decades. To steadily estimate the system’s long-term behavior, an extended observation period of the satellite systems is needed. The upcoming satellite gravity mission Grace-C, planned to be launched in 2028 by NASA, is meant to ensure continuity and extension of the data record. At the beginning of the 2030s, an additional inclined pair will be launched by ESA to form together with GRACE-C the Mass change And Geosciences International Constellation (MAGIC), for which higher spatial and temporal resolutions are expected.

This contribution presents the results of multi-decadal closed-loop simulations of current and future satellite gravity observations. It shows the benefit of an increased duration of the observation and an improved observational system while comparing processing strategies for long-term trends in ocean mass changes. The observed climate signal is based on projections of mass change signals of oceans, ice sheets, and glaciers derived from CMIP6 climate projection under a shared socio-economic pathway scenario without drastic reduction of Greenhouse gases emissions (SSP5-8.5). A particular focus here is on the accuracy of long-term ocean trends. The direct estimation of long-term trends benefits from an increasing observation period and allows improved spatial resolution compared to trends estimated from monthly temporal gravity fields. The global ocean heat content is estimated from the steric sea-level change which is derived by subtracting the observed ocean mass change from the overall sea level change. The resulting long-term trends in ocean heat content are then compared to initial inputs to the simulation to illustrate the difference in performance between current and future satellite gravity constellations.