‘Almost Surely’ – Exploring the potential of (video) art to communicate probabilities and climate risk

Humans often struggle to intuitively grasp probabilities, which challenges the effective communication of climate risk. Here, I want to explore the potential of (video) art to intuitively translate probability and other abstract mathematical concepts in the context of climate change.

Created as part of an interdisciplinary university course on Ecological Aesthetics, ‘Almost Surely’ is a video art piece bridging the probabilistic nature of scientific climate projections with their factual manifestation in the real world. The piece contrasts the technical language of statistics-based knowledge generation used by reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) with scenes of nature and everyday life, where probabilities are translated into reality. In line with my Ph.D. research and the local context of making this piece in California, I focused on the impact of wildfire on familiar terrestrial landscapes such as Joshua Tree or Big Basin National Park.

I aim to reflect on my experience creating this film, navigating the intersection of art, art discourse, and science as a climate scientist, and discuss some of the challenges and questions I came across when translating precise scientific concepts into intuitively felt visuals and storylines.