Integrated Modelling of Landscape Functions: Testing the Impact of Land Use Change

Recognizing the limitations of disciplinary mathematical models for assessing diverse landscape functions, we present a conceptual framework for their integration. This study addresses the challenge of analysing multifunctional landscapes by proposing an integrated modelling approach. We demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of this approach in terms of model integration. A thorough analysis of endogenous and exogenous variables in each of the models is an important part of the framework. Through a case study in the Netherlands (catchment Aa of Weerijs) we evaluate the impact of land use change scenarios on drought resilience and on carbon sequestration.

The results indicate that this framework of softly (loosely) coupling a hydrodynamic and a soil carbon model, is effective in understanding the relationship between water and carbon. The framework worked well through multiple model runs and iterations. When applied on a land use scenario of afforestation, the study area showed an average increase in soil moisture during a dry period (increase in drought resilience) and an increase in soil organic carbon (increase in sequestration).

This softly coupled approach contributes valuable insights to environmental modelling, offering a pathway for researchers and practitioners to navigate complex model integration challenges. Such a softly coupled way of working with existing disciplinary models gives practitioners the opportunity to make informed decisions for sustainable landscape management. The thorough variables analysis as part of the framework enhances transparency in modelling, addressing situations where it may not always be obvious which variables and processes are represented and how.