Examining the influence of forest changes on drought across time scales in Europe through multiple regional climate model simulations

Land cover changes, notably forest alterations, have been observed across Europe due to extensive land management policies. These changes have significant influence on local climates through diverse biophysical mechanisms, given the crucial role of forests in the land ecosystem. While modeling studies have emphasized the impact of forest changes on regional temperature and precipitation in recent decades, their effects on drought conditions in this region remain largely unexplored. To address this gap, our study analyzes multiple simulations with regional climate models to comprehensively investigate how forest changes impact drought across various timescales in Europe. Specifically, we explored seven models, each simulated two extreme scenarios: maximum forest coverage and grass coverage in the region. The comparison between extreme forest coverage and grass coverage serves to evaluate the impact of deforestation on drought. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index was chosen as our metric to assess drought conditions. Our findings reveal considerable variation among the models in depicting the response to deforestation in terms of drought, particularly notable in Scandinavia and Eastern Europe. Our results suggest an increase in aridity on the Iberian Peninsula following deforestation. In Scandinavia the response varies during the year: winter months tend toward increased dryness, while summer months display a tendency toward greater wetness post-deforestation. Our primary objectives encompass quantifying the potential impacts of deforestation in Europe, identifying resilient model responses, and unraveling the sources of uncertainty within these simulated impacts. Through a meticulous analysis of model responses across regions and timescales, we aim to offer insights into the nuanced effects of forest change on drought conditions. This exploration is crucial in guiding future land management policies and devising strategies to mitigate potential adverse impacts of deforestation on regional drought susceptibility in Europe. Ultimately, our study seeks to contribute to informed decision-making regarding land use practices and their implications for climate and ecosystems.