Impact-based forecast for critical infrastructure during Tropical Cyclones

Critical infrastructures, such as healthcare facilities or roads, play a vital role in society as they provide essential services for the functioning of communities. Disruptions to these infrastructures have far-reaching consequences, affecting public health, safety, security, well-being, and economic activities. Weather extremes, such as tropical cyclones or floods, can lead to widespread failures in lifeline services such as power, communication, transportation, and healthcare. Forecasting the potential impact of weather extremes in the weeks to days before they happen can help increase the preparedness in the areas that might be affected. The emerging field of research on impact-based forecast models is instrumental in this regard, aiding international organizations and governments in making informed decisions, taking early actions, and allocating resources efficiently. This study aims to build upon the pioneering research by developing an impact forecast tool of tropical cyclones on critical infrastructure. While earlier efforts concentrated on estimating the potential affected population, our focus shifts to understanding the impact on critical infrastructure, starting with healthcare facilities, schools and road networks. We present a case study of Tropical Cyclone (TC) Freddy, which hit Mozambique and Madagascar in 2023. We calculate direct impacts using two sets of vulnerability curves for structural damage and another based on the Saffir-Simpson scale to ensure global applicability when needed. To better understand the significance of these impacts, we further assess their indirect impacts on the population. Additionally, to ensure the utility of this tool for international organizations, we exchange with stakeholders from these entities.