Dynamics of Coastal Extremes: Unravelling Estuarine Processes through Numerical Modelling

Exploring the intricate relationships between land and marine processes is essential for a comprehensive understanding of climate dynamics. While contemporary coupled climate models have made significant progress in capturing various interactions, the explicit resolution of estuarine and intertidal processes remains a challenge. Building upon the foundation laid by the UKC3 UK national climate model, we present a novel perspective by incorporating a high-resolution (<20 m) flexible mesh model, Delft-3D, to specifically address intertidal and estuary regions.

Our study focuses on the dynamic eastern Irish Sea, marked by hyper-tidal conditions and hosting eight estuaries alongside a significant intertidal zone. Employing a comprehensive comparison between the Delft model and the UKC3 model, we emphasize the simulation of extreme water heights during the winter storm season of 2013-2014. The outcomes provide valuable insights into the capabilities of both models in capturing high-water levels, paving the way for future investigations.

Looking ahead, our research extends to incorporate the latest UKCP18 climate scenarios into the refined Delft model. This expansion allows us to explore potential variations in climate patterns and their implications for estuarine and coastal regions. The anticipated analysis aims to offer valuable insights into the impact of future climate change on these vital areas.

As a final objective, I plan to parameterize estuarine processes within the UKC3 coupled system using an estuarine box model. This simplified approach holds promise in resolving coastal extremes and fluxes for impact studies, marking a crucial step towards enhancing the overall accuracy of climate models in portraying estuarine dynamics.