Modelling multi-sectoral water demand and water availability to identify future water scarcity regions in Germany

Climate change and other dynamic changes, such as demographic change, pose challenges for public water supply in Germany. This study contributes to the identification of hot spot regions that could experience increased water shortages in the future through nationwide, regionalized forecasts of water demand in domestic, industry and agriculture sectors and their balancing with projections of groundwater recharge. Multi-sectoral water demand forecasts for the periods 2021-2050, 2036-2065 and 2069-2098 were prepared using a top-down approach at NUTS-3 level (cities and districts).

The total water demand in the domestic sector in Germany averages approx. 3.7 billion m³/a in the reference period 1998-2019. In the lower scenario, it decreases to approx. 2.2 billion m³/a by the end of the century. In the upper scenario, total water demand in the domestic sector in Germany increases to around 4.1 billion m³/a. Industrial water demand could fall to around half (10.9 billion m³/a) as early as 2030 compared to the reference period (approx. 21.6 billion m³/a) due to a sharp decline in cooling water demand. From the middle of the 21st century onwards, it is expected to stagnate at around 6.1 billion m³/a. Depending on the scenario, the irrigated agricultural area in Germany will almost double (RCP 2.6) or almost triple (RCP 8.5) by the end of the century, resulting in a near tripling (RCP 8.5) of irrigation volumes. Overall, the total water demand in Germany decreases significantly in both scenarios. In the lower scenario, water demand falls from around 26 billion m³/a to around 9 billion m³/a by the end of the century. In the upper scenario, it is reduced to around 12 billion m³/a by the end of the century. These enormous decreases in total water demand are due to reductions in water demand in the energy sector, which overlay increases in domestic and agricultural water demands.

mHM-simulations of groundwater recharge based on climate projections show constant or increasing groundwater recharge rates in large parts of Germany in the ensemble median for the 2021-2050, 2036-2065 and 2069-2098 time slices, assuming both RCP 2.6 (21 RCMs) and RCP 8.5 (49 RCMs). However, declining groundwater recharge rates may also occur in certain regions, particularly in south-western Germany. In the 25th percentile of the model ensemble, falling groundwater recharge rates occur under RCP 2.6 in southern and western Germany. Towards the end of the century, groundwater recharge rates increase in eastern Germany. Under RCP 8.5, the 25th percentile of the model ensemble shows mostly constant or increasing groundwater recharge rates. However, south-western Germany is characterized by a significant decline in groundwater recharge.

The risk index water balance RIWB was defined as an indicator to evaluate the regional water supply in relation to the balance between water demand and groundwater recharge. The RIWB shows that the ratio of water demand to groundwater recharge can be expected to remain the same or improve in the most regions, while, depending on the scenario, 4% or 11% of districts/cities, particularly in northern Germany, must prepare for a deterioration in this ratio.